decision
- process of selecting between alternatives
- i.e. considering whether one should eat a sandwich or pizza
reasoning
- process associated with decision making
- i.e. the food item that looks freshly made would likely taste better
judgement
- a decision that is made
- i.e. select the pizza that looks freshly made
inductive reasoning
- reasoning based on observation and evidence
- conclusions probably true
strength of an inductive argument based on:
- representativeness of observations
- number of observations
- quality of evidence
heuristics
- “rules of thumb”; what worked in the past will work for the current problem
- i.e. availability and representativeness heuristics
availability heuristic
events that are more easily remembered are judged as more probable events than are less easily remembered events
representativeness heuristic
estimate probability by evaluating how similar it is to a prototype (how often one events resembles another event)
conjunction rule
probability of two events happening together (conjunction) cannot be higher than the probability of the events each happening alone (single constituents)
factors that could impact judgement
- law of large numbers
- myside bias
- confirmation bias
-illusory correlation - base rate
- backfire effect
law of large numbers
large random sample drawn from a population will be more representative of that population
myside bias
evidence is evaluated in such a way that it aligns with one’s own opinions and attitudes
confirmation bias
selectively searching for information that conforms to one’s own beliefs
illusory correlation
perceiving an association between two events when there is no relationship or, the relationship is weaker than what one thinks
base rate
relative proportions of different classes in the population
backfire effect
tendency for one’s viewpoint to become stronger when encountering facts that oppose their viewpoint
deductive reasoning
determining if a conclusion logically follows from statements (aka premises)
syllogism
consists of 2 premises and a conclusion
categorical syllogism
- premise and conclusion begin with the term, all, none, or some
- premise 1: all birds are animals (all A are B)
- premise 2: all animals eat food (all B are C)
- conclusion: therefore, all birds eat food (all A are C)
mental model approach
construction of a mental model or, imagined representation (mental images) of the situation to help solve a reasoning problem
conditional syllogism
- premise 1 starts with “if… then”
- premise 1: if a buy a car, then i’ll have less money
- premise 2: i bought a car
- conclusion: therefore, i’ll have less money
utility
desired outcome because it is in one’s best interest
expected utility theory
people are rational so when all relevant information is known, a decision will be made that maximizes the expected utility
problems for utility approach
- not necessarily money, people find value in other things
- many decisions do not maximize the probability of the best outcome
