the case and democratization
one-party state (was personalistic under Mao + now concern over Xi Jinping with personalistic tendencies)
most of the time transitions in one-party states are more smooth, with more personalistic authoritarian regimes it is hard to pick a second-man (bc if you’re so perfect, why do you need a second man) -> instability when transition leader
democratization = flat-liner: stayed authoritarian
- jump 1910 = end of empire + abolutism
*afterwards more authoritarian: Sun Yat Sen didn’t want to share power
China not much clientelism: bc it doens’t really rely on state money (more on private money)
now = debate if it is authoritarian or totalitarian (surveillance even at the lowest level)
goegraphy
large territory ->
Diversity, not as much as in other countries:
- Han Chinese majority
- Xinjiang regions = Uighurs = poorer, high surveillance = overlapping cleavages (center periphery +?)
- horizontal inequality: inequality across cultural divions: often around social/cultural/economic lines (marginalization)
Threat of external aggression (still part of narrative today, used to defend actions e.g. towards Taiwan)
- most famous period of defence is the century of humiliation
striking: colonial powers were the aggressor = via sea not land borders
historical dev. pre century of humiliation
history starts 200BC, Qing dynasty (1644-1912) brought central rule by taxation
decline in wealth since C17, but still the most wealthy until C18
*China didn’t industrialize much + became more isolationist + no regional challengers at the time (-> didn’t spur modernization efforts)
nomenklatura system: through bureaucratic system you can get economic and political power -> people focus on bureaucracy rather than on private industry + nomenklatura undermines creativity (you just follow what the people above you say)
decline -> century of humiliation
century of humiliation
= C19: emerging colonial powers
emperor China shut down the opium trade + destroyed opium in the harbor -> UK counteracted -> China had to give up Hong Kong (= Treaty of Nanjing)
1839-1842 = first opium war
1856-1860 = second opium war (US, UK and France against China)
-> loss of support emperor
Treaty of Peking -> China loses more property: Manchuria goes to Russia (later conquered by Japan) + colonial enclaves at the coast
-> more loss legitimacy emperor + eco instability
1899 + 1901 Boxer Rebellion (inspired by nationalism and anti-foreign attitudes), emperor is saved by colonialists (bc they can control the emperor more easily)
end of empire
Xinhai Revolution = end of empire = spur of democracy
leads to fragmentation and regional warlords
(difficult to regain central state control + get foreigners out)
KMT = Kuomintang = rule under Sun Yat-sen, restored central rule (still authoritarian) + got the foreigners out?
Sun Yat Sen -> Chiang Kaishek = started repressing the communist party controlled by Mao
-> Mao started long march to escape the repression, CCP changed ideology (proletariat revolution) following Mao
- Mao thought China was not industrialized enough, proletariat wouldn’t be able to do it, peasant class would
during march got support from peasant class (it took their side)
1937-1945 = CCP and KMT join forces to fight Japan (still also fight each other)
after the war: CCP (people liberation army) strongest -> won civil war, KMT fled to Taiwan (was representative China in UNSC until 1971) = communist china 1949
communist China
Mao (1949-76) = totalitarian regime
personality cult:
- 1956 ‘let 100 flowers bloom’: everyone could criticize the regime (China had to modernize, needs creativity) -> protests -> start repression everyone that was critical
- Great Leap forward 1958-60 = encourage industrialization (households mending down iron in backyard) -> poor industrial material + stop agriculture -> hunger
*Mao put more focus on ideology, people should modernize for themselves, not like Stalin a big planned econ. - 1966 = Cultural Revolution: anti-intellectual movement against the people in charge (that he didn’t like) -> widespread instability
*bc after great leap forward there were tensions between faction Mao (ideology), and others that wanted more stability and planned econ.
(in the party diff factions -> tensions)
Deng Xiaoping (1979-92)
= steer away from personalistic rule (saw it as instable) + more eco focus (more capitalist)
-> people lifted out of poverty by eco growth
theory of democratization = more wealth = more middle class people that want a say = calls for more democracy, specifcially from students
-> Tiananmen Square protests (1989): June 4 repression (since then no mass protests)
cleavages
not visible in party competition (bc there is no party competition)
polsci looks at cleavages form which conflict may arise
economic cleavage:
- transformation to capitalism -> rising inequality (horizontal inequality in areas with minorities)
-> tensions e.g. in Tibet and Xinjiang - floating population: Mao had designated hoku system (binding people to certain neighborhoods), modernization -> people migrate away from the rural areas to the cities -> not in their hoku so don’t get public services (could potentially form a threat to the regime, they are centered in the cities)
regional/ethnic cleavage:
overlaps with eco inequality
democracy/authoritarianism cleavage:
there are always pro-democratic forces, no protests in the scale of Tiananmen square, but small (e.g. in Hong + also main land)
it does not seem like there are cleavages that are strong enough to threaten the regime
confucian values and authoritarian support (she didn’t talk about these, but it was on the slide)
- hierarchy (and respect for seniors)
- conformism, aversion of conflict
- collective instead of individual identities
- role of superiors in fostering ‘correct’ behavior
idea that people may support authoritarianism bc this, rather than wanting democracy
but there are pro-democratic forces (e.g. Hong Kong + during covid silent protests in the main land)
political regime
from totalitarian to authoritarian?
one-party state
- only one legitimate ruling party
- ideology: vanguard party (no proletarian or peasant revolution, still believe that the party will lead the way for people to become communist)
- pyramid structure hierarchical organization (nomenklatura)
- no (direct) elections
*some forms of indirect elections
+ village levels some sort of direct elections - no/limited internal party democracy = most policies come from the top and are implemented downwards
recent years a bit more room for bottom-up involvement + criticism: some direct elections village level & more candidates than positions
bit of historical institutionalism: bureaucracy in the dynasties important source of power -> still important now
organizational parallelism
dual structure of governance and administration where the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the state institutions operate alongside each other. This system means that for most government agencies, there is a corresponding party organization that oversees and influences its operations
e.g.
- presidency and party chairmanship (circles) are same position
- Politburo (party) parallel with state council
- central committee + national party congress parallel with national people’s congress
the communist party
CCP
1921
Leninist (not Marxist) party
ideological transformation(?)
> 96 million members (also consequence of nomenklatura: to get anywhere you need to show loyalty to the party)
nomenklatura system
non-transparent structure: we assume there are diff factions, but we can’t see how strong they are + it does not look like it is so divided that there can be social change
reformers vs conservatives
Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) = the leading men = central group of leaders, mostly about Xi Jinping
National Party Congress =
- delegates sent by local councils
- formally elects standing committee members (usually preselected)
- in recent years a bit more democratic: more candidates than seats -> more room for bottom-up input
president
head of state, more a ceremonial rule in the constitution, this is not the case in practice
president of the PRC = head of state
titular office (titular office” refers to a position or title that is held by an individual but may not carry significant power, authority, or responsibilities) = formal powers limited
1992-2012 unofficial 10y terms (Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao)
2018 = Xi Jinping removes term limits, stays on after 2022
state council
overseen by pulitburo (parallel)
has standing committee with prime minister and vice ministers
overlaps in membership: key figures state also key figures party
- headed by premier and vice-premiers (high-ranking PSC (politburo standing commitee) members)
- serves in tandem with president
- oversees approx 25 ministries
- ministers can also have important functions in party
national people’s congress
= parliament
- appoints ministers, presidents (but actually: top controls downwards even though it seems it is the other way around)
- two-week meeting every year (more than national party congress)
other political parties: take advisory rule, formally subservient to the party
diff with Russia: all parties/seats are decided by the CCP (in Russia they are actually elected)
local and regional gov
formally = China unitary state
in practice: assymetric federalism: different levels of policy autonomy
special administrative regions (SARs): “one country, two systems”
- Hong Kong (used to be from the UK) = encroachment Hong Kong autonomy: schooling, criminal law, suppression seccesionist tendencies -> 2019-20 protests -> 2020 National Security Law
- Macau (used to be from Portugal) = no contestation like in Hong Kong
= autonomous regions, but CCP is in place and controls the decision making on the ground
suppressed ‘autonomy’
center-periphery cleavage + HIs
CCP controls over autonomous regions
East Turkestan independence movement in Xinjiang
Dalai lama (Tibet) in exile
role of natural resources, migration and assimilation =
50s-60s independence movement Xinjiang larger -> Han Chineze went there to take resources, led to more resentment (protests + terrorist movement)
- this taking over of resources e.g. also in Nigeria and Northern Ireland
mechanisms of authoritarian control
- cooptation and threat at the elite level (patron allows that elite clients expropriate state resources) = dynamics of political corruption
-> lucrative to be in/close to the CCP: state controls key eco sectors - cooptation and threat in society: NGOs + individual level
- regime legitimation
- media censorship
- violence
Tigers and Flies campaign
2012
= one of the elements seen as part of the personal rule dynamic of Xi Jinping
Xi Jinping prosecutes enemies through fighting corruption
- higher ranks -> more death penalties: makes sense, bc there’s more money there
- not just rhetoric, actual instrument to remain in control
cooptation and threat NGOs
regime allows NGOs, mainly public service NGOs (e.g. helping the poor)
growth NGOs not necessarily sign of strong civil society (e.g. China has increase NGOs, but they are public service + funded by the regime)
party representation within NGOs and private enterprises
also public service NGOs can form a threat for the regime as they bind people -> regime keeps them tied to them by funding NGOs (need registering + approval) and party delegations in NGOs to monitor
cooptation and threat individual level
Grid management system = on the rise since 2012
- neighborhoods divided in areas with grassroot communities
- party members put in place in neighborhoods that aren’t their own = portrays onitoring purpose
- balance co-optation and control
- promote party and services (in exchange for prestige and benefits)
social credit system: sanctions and rewards
- regulatory standardization and effectiveness
- boost since 2020
- pandemic rule enforcement
- surveillance
- initially to centralize info on companies (central file keeping taps on everything of a company)
lists with “untrustworthy people”
regime legitimation
1949-1970s =
- communist ideology
- authoritarian control
1980s - now =
- economic growth (output) = don’t protest for democracy, we will keep eco process going
*perhaps under threat now - authoritarian control
- patriotic nationalist appeals (e.g. Chinese dream)
- perhaps: Xi Jinping personalism as input legitimacy
nationalistic legitimization? like Putin: boost own legitimacy by combatting common enemy
- for China: aggression with military training etc. in the Chinese sea
Chinese dream:
- Strength: eco, political, military, scientific - Civility: equity, fairness, high morals - Harmony: peaceful relations among social classes - Beauty: healthy environment
unspoken contract under threat?
part legitimization of the regime is through economic growth
but this is under threat:
- GDP growth rate declining, while still lot of poverty and inequality
- ageing population -> hard to keep the system in place
1979 one-child policy, now reversed problem with too old population -> now 3 child max - inequality even worse than in the US (South Africa is the most unequal)
media censorship
control social media + suppression of organizations with high mobilizing capacity
Falun Gong = religious organization with strong support across the country -> makes leaders nervous: could they post a threat even without political goals?
- were outlawed + regime accused of killing them and harvesting their organs
- could have strong mobilizing power, could pose a threat
violence
Xinjiang Concentration Camps
separatist movement motivated by Strike Hard Campaign (1996, 2014) against Uighurs
accusation that the regime puts people in detention camps, where they are forced to make cheap clothes
