Individual Reserve Estimate
(Chain Ladder) R = C(q/p)
Benktander Reserve
R(GB) = q x U(BF)
Collective Reserve Estimate
R(coll) = Burning cost * q * premium
% reported (Hurlimann)
sum of m (to i)/sum of m (to ultimate)
Full credibility formula (Hurlimann)
Z = (p/q) * [Cov(C,R) + pqVar(Burning Cost)]/Var(C) + p^2*Var(Burning Cost)]
Credibility options (CL, BF, GB, WN, Optimal)
CL (Z = 1) BF (Z = 0) GB (Z = p) WN (Z = p*ELR) Optimal (Z = p/(p + sqrt(p))