CPI definition
Measures the average change in the price level of a weighted basket of goods and services over time
How is cpi calculated
Households expenditure survey conducted
Representative + weighted basket of goods and/s is created (updated yearly )
Items in basket are weighted on the proportion of income they take up to buy
Prices of basket items are tracked over time to calculate the average price change
What is the uk’s inflation target
2% plus minus 1
This target aims to maintain price stability
RPI
Retail price index
Measure of inflation that tracks the average change in the prices of a basket of g/s over time, including housing costs like mortgage interest payments + council tax
Alternative measure of inflation
RPI key points
Included housing costs
More representative for homeowners
Usually shows a higher rate of inflation than cpi
CPI limitation 1- different spending patterns
Basket of g/s only reflects average household. Not every household will be buying the things in this basket
CPI limitation 2- housing costs
CPI excludes owner-occupiers’ housing costs, not actually showing what they spend their income on
CPI limitation 3- quality changes
Prices may rise due to an increase in quality of g/s in the basket. This could make the inflation seem worse than it actually is
CPIH
CPI but includes owner occupiers’ housing costs
Demand pull inflation
Occurs when AD grows faster than AS, causing upward pressure on prices
Characteristics of demand pull inflation
Demand side of economy
Often occurs when economy is close to full employment
Firms raise prices due to excess demand
Causes of demand pull inflation
Depreciation of exchange rate- net exports rise so AD rises
Fiscal stimulus- lower taxes increase disposable income, higher gov spending increases AD
Lower interest rates- higher consumption
Growth in export markets
Demand pull inflation graph
Cost push inflation
Occurs when firms experience rising costs of production, leading to higher prices
Characteristics of cost push inflation
Supply side of economy
Occurs even when demand isn’t increasing
Firms pass higher costs onto consumers in the form of higher prices
Causes of cost push inflation
Rising raw material prices
Rising wage costs (maybe due to trade union pressure)
Increased taxes
Depreciation of the exchange rate (increased import costs + other raw materials)
Inflation expectations leading to wage price spirals
What are wage price spirals
When workers demand higher wages to counter inflation
Increases costs for firms so they increase their priced to maintain profits
This worsens inflation
Cycle continues
Cost push inflation graph
Why may deflation reduce consumer spending
Ppl delay purchases expecting prices to fall further
What is the growth of the money supply (also cause of inflation)
Happens when central bank makes new money + injects it into economy
Aka quantitive easing
More money in the economy = more spending
But if output doesn’t rise at the same rate then inflation will occur (as more money will be chasing the same amount of goods)
Effects of inflation on consumers
Less purchasing power
Benefits borrowers as the real value of debt falls. This means borrowers repay their loans with money that is worth less in real terms over time. Therefore ppl with fixed rate debt may find it easier to manage repayments
Effects of inflation on firms
Higher inflation = higher interest rates = higher borrowing costs = less investment
Wage demands may rise = increases cost of production
Firms may become less internationally competitive (rising domestic costs increases price for foreigners- less demand)
Reduces business confidence + investment due to unpredictable inflation
Effects of inflation on government
Increases spending on pensions + welfare (to maintain recipients real incomes) - this raises public spending + can put additional pressure on gov budgets
Can reduce real value of gov debt. Gov repays existing debt with money that is worth less in real terms over time- burden of debt falls
Effects of inflation on workers
Real wage may fall if pay rise doesn’t increase too
Higher business costs may lead to redundancy
Job insecurity may increase when inflation is high -less confidence + spending