What is the first step in the hypothesis process?
Find a pattern in your history/experiences
This involves inferring upstream causes, downstream effects, and hidden steps you may not have seen firsthand.
What does the lit review step involve?
Examine what the existing evidence says about the pattern
It is important not to just look for confirmation.
What is the purpose of the theorize step?
Develop two theories that are consistent with the existing evidence
Theories should explain what you experienced and can be assisted by AI.
True or false: In the theorize step, testing your theory is mandatory.
FALSE
It is acceptable not to test your theory, but you should assign a confidence value to it.
What should you assign to your theory in the theorize step?
A confidence value
This is part of the assumption-reality scale.
What is the first step in the tool box for deriving lessons learned?
Write down what actually happened first
This includes noting the people, incentives, timing, constraints, and environment.
What should you infer after writing down what actually happened in the lessons learned process?
Upstream causes, downstream effects, and hidden steps
This helps to understand the broader context of the experience.
What is the third step in the tool box for deriving lessons learned?
Seek out the base rate
This involves comparing your experience against broader evidence.
What should you do to test the validity of your conclusions in the lessons learned process?
Seek contradictory cases
Ask what evidence would show your experience is misleading, incomplete, or unusual.
What is the fifth step in the tool box for deriving lessons learned?
Ask for a confidence rating for the conclusion
This helps assess the reliability of the conclusions drawn.
What should you infer regarding the application of conclusions in the lessons learned process?
Possible exceptions and/or specific conditions
Sometimes mathematical support is needed to demonstrate situational dependency.
What do people often misread when desire is involved?
Experience
Supported by philosophers like Pascal, Augustine, Epictetus, and Schopenhauer.
Learning a lesson is not the same as changing behavior because behavior is informed by what factors?
- Triggers
- Contexts
- Short-term payoffs
This occurs even after someone has ‘learned better.’
What are some biases/heuristics/defense mechanisms that lead to overgeneralization from small samples of past experience?
- Small-sample overgeneralization
- False consensus
- Projection
- Favoring Inductive Reasoning over deductive reasoning
These biases can distort judgment and reasoning.
What is the availability heuristic?
Judging frequency, probability, or typicality by the ease of recalling examples
Personal experience is usually the most retrievable kind of evidence, leading to overweighting.
What does base-rate neglect refer to?
Believing ‘my case feels more real than the statistics’
This bias can distort understanding of statistical realities.
Define naive realism.
The tendency to assume we see the world as it really is
Disagreement is often viewed as bias or ignorance in others.
What is the introspection illusion?
People are often poor at identifying the real causes of their judgments and behavior
This leads to overestimating understanding of mechanisms and processes.
What does Kruger-Dunning refer to?
Overconfidence about competence and insight
Poor performers may lack the skill needed to recognize their own limits.
