Lecture 5

Question 1

Hindsight vs. Foresight

Answer 1

Hindsight
- event has happened
- outcome is known

Judgements based on hindsight also known as postdictive judgements

Foresight
- event has not happened
- outcome is not known

Judgement based on foresight also known as predictive judgements

Question 2

Hindsight Bias

Answer 2

• current bias toward previous probability and statistical judgements about past events
• bias based on knowledge of actual outcomes

*a judgement was made prior to the event

*several types of statistical judgments could be requested. The most common judgment requested is current memory of previous probability judgments

Question 3

Creeping Determinism

Answer 3

“the relative view that an event is inevitable”

another word for hindsight

relative, because creeping slowing toward absolute value rather than the absolute value itself

Question 4

Determinism vs. Creeping Determinism

Answer 4

Determinism
- perceived inevitability of outcome is absolute
- recall of past prediction that outcome will occur in terms of a probability = 1

Creeping determinism
- perceived inevitability of outcome is relative
- recall of past prediction that outcome will occur in terms of a probability: NOT 1.0

Question 5

Support (and prediction) for hindsight BIAS (aka Creeping Determinism)

Answer 5

Judgments in Hindsight
- provide higher likelihood for actual outcome

• lower likelihood for alternative outcomes

Question 6

Memory Paradigm

Answer 6

• estimate probability of possible outcomes for a future event
• event occurs
• recall the probability that was estimated for each possible outcome

Question 7

Results

Answer 7

• For possible outcomes that occurred, recalled probabilities were higher than original assigned probabilities
• For outcomes that that did not occur, recalled probabilities were lower than originally assigned probabilities

Question 8

Fischoff & Blyth (1975)
Is there evidence for hindsight bias (aka creeping determinism)

Answer 8

• there is evidence for hindsight bias
• recalled probabilities were biased or “creeping” toward the probability of the actual outcome

Question 9

Selective Activation, Reconstruction and Anchoring

Answer 9

• Selective activation of relevant information
• outcome for the original prediction is also activated
• reconstruction of original prediction process using activated information
• “anchored” toward probability of the known outcome

Question 10

Probability Cue

Answer 10

A cue that might use based on how likely the cue will lead to a correct or optimal decision

“pieces of information that correlate with the judgment people are trying to make.” (Kim, 2017, p71)

Question 11

Cue Value

Answer 11

the value associated with each item being compared based on the criteria set by the probability cue

Question 12

Take-the-Best

Answer 12

• a prescriptive strategy
• search for the probability cue that can differentiate between the two items that are compared
• start search based on how likely the cue can lead to correct decision
• probability cue is found, choose the item with the higher cue value

Question 13

Reconstruction After Feedback with Take the Best (RAFT)