Prediction
a judgment made about an outcome before the outcome knowledge is known
Profiling
creating or writing an outline or article that describes a person
Clinical Intuition
“people with experience and expertise in the domain make intuitive prediction for individual cases” (Kim, 2017, p.105)
Statistical Prediction
“prediction about a particular case are made solely on the basis of empirical evidence and/or statistical comparison to data drawn from a large sample” (Kim, 2017, p105)
Blind Empiricism
states conditions when question is useful:
- a question is useful if people’s responses to a question can predict behaviours or disorders
- as long as question can make accurate predictions, question is useful even if not based on reason or on theory
Grove et al (200) Which is more accurate: intuition or prediction?
“mechanical predictions of human behaviour are equal or superior to clinical predictions (intuition) methods for a wide range of circumstances.”
Meta-analysis
an analysis of several analyses that answers a specific question
Why is clinical intuition inferior to mechanical prediction?
- ignores base rates and prior probabilities
- overreliance on the representativeness heuristic
- overreliance on the availability heuristic
- assign non optimal weights to cues
Effects of Expertise
Does expertise have any effect on validity of judgements?
There is no evidence that expertise has an effect on validity of judgements
Predictor
- information that people use as a signal to lead them to a decision
- the outcome of the decision is not known
Validity
- information that is correlated with the accuracy of a judgement or decision
- using a valid predictor to make a decision is more likely to lead you to a correct decision than using an invalid predictor
Einhorn & Hogarth (1978)
What kind of feedback is useful?
- corrective feedback on validity of predictors
- direct attention away from invalid preditors
- direct attention toward valid predictors
Stewart, Roebber, and Bogart (1997)
How accurate are predictions of weather forecaster compared to computational or statistical predictions?
Weather forecasters are at least just as accurate as statistical models
why are weather forecasters more accurate than clinicians at making predictions?
- consistent and immediate feedback about predictors
- practice effects
- easy-access to base-rate information
why are weather forecasters more accurate at predictions than clinical psychologists?
task characteristics
- consistent and immediate feedback about predictors
- task predictability based on predictors
- high and precise quality of predictors
- model that provides accurate forecasts
