2 things Population growth is caused by
- Increased fertility rates (women have more babies in their lifetime)
- Lower Death Rates (improved food supply, medical care, etc.)
what is mortality
the number and/or rate of deaths in a given time or place
- Alive vs. Dead. (a binary)
what is the Change to mortality rates the basis for
the theory of the Epidemiological Transition
what is morbidity
state of being diseased or unhealthy - the incidence of ill health in a population
- How healthy. (a scale, maybe 1-10?)
what is lifespan
The highest age to which a human can live
- Not enough theory for how long we COULD live so we go with how long we HAVE lived
what is longetivity
Lifespan is a maximum, Longevity = the realistic average or Life expectancy derived as an average from many lives -‘The statistically average
length of life
- Varies from place to place and time to time
- Influenced by Nature (genetic) and Nurture (social) factors
whats the idealised influence of Age Specific Mortality Rates on Longevity
“Bathtub” Curve - applies only to Probability of Dying
- infant mortality, normal life, end of life old age
whats the reality influence of Age Specific Mortality Rates on Longevity
- infant morality
- goes up in 20s - more risk-taking
- continues going up after that as you get older
what is the Survivorship Curves
The Inverse of the Death Curve
- The older you get, the more likely you are to die - leads to a “rectangularization” of the curve
4 factors that control death rate
- genetic factors
- Social and Economic Infrastructure Factors - how much control we exercise over nature e.g. water purification, vaccinations, rodent control
- lifestyle factors - how much control we exercise over ourselves e.g. smoking, alcohol, diet
- Other ‘Psychological Factors’ e.g. Copycat murder-suicides, Good initials W.I.N., milestones like birthdays
global average life expectancy
71yrs
what is the Crude Death Rate (or “Mortality Rate”)
the number of deaths divided by the population
- generally not good to use e.g. younger pops will show lower CDR
what is Infant Mortality
number of deaths to infants divided by the number of live births
- used as a determining the “development” level of a country - would be easily preventable with a little money and/or education
- has a BIG impact on life expectancy calculations
what is Age-Specific Death Rate (ASDR)
a measure of the mortality at each age and sex for a given population (very similar to an ASFR)
what is life expectancy
- Total Years lived. 𝑒𝑒𝑥𝑥 + age
- the expectation of life at birth derived from a life table and generally denoted as 𝑒𝑒𝑥𝑥 - gives each age its own expectancy
- It is the average age at death for a hypothetical group of people born in a particular year and being subjected to the risks of death experienced by people of all ages that year
- surviving certain stages in life e.g. infant mortality increases life expectancy later (survival causes survival)
- can be used on any depreciating asset that starts with a fixed amount e.g. available land
3 main causes of death
- Contagious Diseases (infectious & parasitic)
- Degenerative Diseases & Aging
- Killed by products of the social & Economic Environment
explain Contagious Diseases (infectious & parasitic) as a cause of death
e.g Malaria, HIV/AIDS, small pox, malaria
- viral and bacterial diseases
- Vaccinations now protect most of the population in the developed world
explain Degenerative Diseases & Aging as a cause of death
- now the major cause of death in developed countries
- major chronic disease e.g. cancer, stroke, heart disease
- These are characterized by uncertain etiology (cause), multiple risk factors, long latency, prolonged course of illness, non- contagious origin, functional impairment, and incurability
explain Killed by products of the social & Economic Environment as a cause of death
- Accidents e.g. vehicle / suicide (vary by country, men more succesful) / homicide (men > women)
- Russia is #1 with 209 deaths due to violent mortality
5 big time death events
- The Black Plague
- Influenza and World War 1
- The Global AIDS epidemic
- The 2005 Indonesian Tsunami
- Cultural Revolution in China
whats the Epidemiological Transition
- theory that explains the shift in mortality patterns and the causes of death as societies develop economically and socially
- 100 years ago death rates were high, and early death was common due to contagious diseases like plague
4 stages of mortality through ages
- pre-modern mortality
- roman era to industrial revolution
- industrial revolution to WWII
- WWII to present
mortality in the pre-modern age
- Agriculture probably raised both birth & death rates
- Life expectancy = 20-30 years - ½ died before age 5
mortality in roman era to industrial revolution
- Life expectancy in Roman era = 25 years - by middle ages it had risen to over 30 years
- ‘Columbian Exchange’ of Disease (drove Life Expectancy down in Latin America)
