what did the history of demography portray about populations
- Population growth seen as benefit – encourages development
- “Be fruitful and multiply” <- Book of Genesis ~1300 BCE
- increasing wealth depends on a growing population <- 1500-1800 CE Mercantilism
2 levels of the population theory
- Technical side - more biological components of demography: fertility, mortality, and the distribution of a population by age and sex
- Social side - connects demographic processes to the real events of the social world
what did Thomas Malthus publish in 1798
“An Essay on the Principle of Population.”
what was Thomas Malthus’ 2 laws
1st law – Food is necessary to survive
2nd law – People like to reproduce
- when reproduction > food - causes problems
- but he says - Population grows geometrically (rapidly) while food grows arithmetically
2 things that check the population
Population, if left unchecked, will grow forever
- positive checks - natural disasters, war, famine, disease, etc.
- moral restraint - abstinence
what does the moral constraint population check refer to
- People are “impelled” to reproduce – but lower classes are more impelled
- Moral restraint = the ultimate solution - otherwise, man will live in squalor and poverty with a large family
- Poor are poor because they have no moral restraint – have more kids - their own fault
- “Restrain” from reproducing —> Middle-Class
- Do not restrain from reproducing —-> Poverty
Movies that reflect Malthus’ views
Soylent green (1973)
ZPG (1972)
Elysium (2013)
Downsizing (2017)
3 critiques of Malthus
- food versus population growth – arithmetically vs geometrically growth
- poverty is the conclusion of growth
- moral restraint the only acceptable check
why is ‘food versus population growth’ a Malthus’ critique
- We have never run out of food? – the pop is much bigger now compared to Malthus’ area
- Pops don’t grow geometrically forever
why is ‘poverty is the conclusion of growth’ a Malthus critique
- Average person today is much better off – better life expectancy
- Average person has more money
why is ‘moral restraint the only acceptable check’ a Malthus critique
Better standard of living with moral restraint, but you couldn’t have moral restraint until you had a better standard of living
who / what did Malthus influence
- John Maynard Keynes, known for Keynesian economics, pulled from Malthus
- Charles Darwin: “It is the doctrine of Malthus applied with manifold force to the whole animal and vegetable kingdoms.”
- Poor Law Amendment in 1834 was strongly influenced by Malthus
how did Malthus influence the poor law amendments 1834
- Malthus saw any assistance to the poor was self-defeating - allows the poor to increase their families – give them money, they’ll have more kids
- The amendment made mothers of illegitimate children receive less support and poor-law authorities no longer try and identify the fathers of illegitimate children to recover the costs of child support
- The old laws “promote bastardy; to make want of chastity on the woman’s part the shortest road to obtaining either a husband or a competent maintenance…” J. Cowell’s report to the Amendment of the Poor Laws, 1834
what is a Marxist perspective (Karl Marx)
each society at each point in history has its own law of population that determines the consequences of population growth
Marx’s perspective on capitalism and socialism
Capitalism= Overpopulation
Socialism = no overpopulation
- Overpopulation is essentially unemployment leading to poverty
- No unemployment in a socialist society, thus no overpopulation
- More people = more production = more wealth
- Thus, population growth that Malthus discussed is a consequence of Capitalism not population growth per se
- Socialists still preach over population, cannot escape it
what is the Population Bomb
Paul Ehrlich, 1968
- The battle to feed all of humanity is over
- In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death
- At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate
what was the Simon-Ehrlich Wager
- Simon - predicts that human innovation and technological progress will improve resource availability and environmental conditions over time - believes that on average, things will get better in the future
- Erlich - according to Simon, focuses on indirect measures - instead of betting on human progress, they focus on potential negative factors (e.g., environmental damage, resource depletion) that could worsen over time
**uses to olympic performances to illustrate these ideas
