1
Q
what is a superpower?
A
it is a country with the ability to project its dominating power and influence anywhere in the world
2
Q
what is an emerging power?
A
countries with a large role in one or more superpower characteristics and with a growing influence, they are experiencing a transition in terms of their economic structure, e.g. china, brazil
3
Q
explain the power of resources as a characteristic of a superpower
A
- the control of access to physical resources such as energy and minerals
- provides inputs for economic growth because their resources can be exported at a high price, making it essential for economic growth
resources may be internally located or access through reliable source countries using transport pathways - having access to resources doesn’t guarantee development as in many countries these resources are managed by public TNCs, e.g. shell and BP in Nigeria
- OPEC and their oil
4
Q
what is hard power?
A
it represents a coercive approach to international relations and employs the use of military or economic power to achieve certain outcomes
e. g.
- the gulf war
- the American-led war in Afghanistan
5
Q
what is soft power?
A
it is a persuasive approach for countries to act in a particular way on the basis that the persuader is respected and appealing. it includes political persuasion (diplomacy) and cultural influence , it is the ability of a state to indirectly convince others to desire its goals and vision
- it is the moral authority of a nation’s foreign policy
6
Q
what is smart power?
A
it is an approach that underscores the necessity of a strong military, but also invests heavily in alliances, partnerships and institutions of all levels to expand one’s influence.
it places a large emphasis on diplomacy with the need to have diplomas in order to form relationships, Obama wanted to form more trade agreement in order to increase diplomacy
7
Q
what are the benefits and drawbacks of soft power?
A
pros:
- through the diffusion of their culture worldwide it gives them a global presence without the need to directly invest in the country, many rely on soft power for overseas influence
- the indirect effects of diffused influence can make a significant difference in obtaining favourable outcomes in bargaining situations
cons:
- takes a long time to effect whereas hard power takes little time
- it relies on a country having respected culture, values and politics, hard for those who are culturally and ideologically very different
8
Q
give an example of soft power
A
UK
- diplomacy, they have one of the largest networks of diplomats and embassies in the world
- the BBC, the global service allows them to broadcast their English values around the world
- the city of London (and nyc) dominates international finance, banking and law- setting standards and values
9
Q
what are the benefits and drawbacks to hard power?
A
pros:
- fast acting so you can see the results better, quite tangible
- you cannot rise up without hard power, you must show your importance through military or economic power
10
Q
explain mackinder’s geo-strategic location theory
A
- in 1904 he identified a region that he called the heartland which stretched from Eastern Europe into russia and believe it was the key geo-strategic location in the world because control of it commanded a huge proportion of the world’s physical and Human Resources
- he argued the further away you were from it, the less influence it would have
- he believed russia should be the world’s global power due to its favourable location but suffered from two disadvantages: it has many borders and the frozen ground it has around ports year round
- some argue that the Middle East is now the heartland
11
Q
what is geopolitical stability?
A
it is the insurance of peace and no war, it is about how well different governments get on with each other, e.g. the relationship between the usa and russia is one of instability
12
Q
how stable is the hegemonic power of the usa and what is their main threat?
A
stable
- due to their capitalist ideologies
instable
- their GDP has become lower relative to others in growing economies (BRICS)
- rise in conflict with the Mexican border suggests instability
CHINA
- they have access to a large amount of Human Resources, GDP growth at 6.1% that does not seem to be slowing down
- increasingly connected with other nations, their dominance in africa in terms of their exploitation of its mineral resources
- the strength of china’s military highlights their hard power, thus actings a threat to USA’s sustaining power, military ambitions to build a blue water navy which is one which operates in the open ocean
- the USA have become dependant on china for manufactured goods
- BUT china still censors the Internet and limits personal freedoms
13
Q
what is a proxy war?
A
it is when you pick side in a war, it is a war that is instigated by a major power which does not itself become involved, e.g. in the Korean War which saw the division of Korea where the US backed South Korea and the USSR backed north korea
14
Q
what is Neo-colonialism?
A
it refers to the soft power that is being used to control former colonies to ensure wealthy countries still get what they want
- some see it as a form of mutual benefit
- it tends to involve former colonies as they are more fragile and easier to manipulate
15
Q
what is the prediction for the future growth of emerging powers?
A
- they will become increasingly important to global economic and political systems in the 21st century and the dominance of the USA with china most likely to rival their hegemony
- predicted that emerging nations will demand more say in global organisations such as the UN, increasing decision making power in IGOs
- play a greater role in international peacekeeping missions and disaster response as their military capacity grows
- china’s economic influence is growing rapidly as well as india and Brazil but with a few problems along its way
- europe and the USA’s share of world GDP has been declining since about 1945 and 1990 respectively
- the EU has expanded to be the world’s largest economic tragic bloc, it now rivals the USA in economic dominance
16
Q
explain how emerging countries are becoming increasingly important in global environment governance
A
- the BRIC countries account for 42% of global co2 emissions, global environment governance agreements must involve these countries
- in the conference in 2015 the BRIC countries were involved in the agreement in a way they had not been when the 1997 Kyoto protocol was signed, which only involved developed countries
- china and russia ranked amongst the highest in the number of delegates they sent to the 2015 conference, this is a measure of their commitments, the USA ranked 35th
17
Q
what are the strengths and weaknesses of china
A
strengths
- they are the main trading partner for more than 100 countries compared to half of that for the USA, accounts for 60% of GDP in BRIC countries (EC)
- geostrategic location for trade and defence, belt and road initiative aims to gain a geo-economic presence of central Asia’s heartland (EN)
- most populous country in the world, 4x the pop of the USA, large workforce (D)
weaknesses
- deeply polarised between ideals (republic vs democratic), authoritarian gov leads to a lack of power (P)
- as much as they have expanded their military, its interests lie mainly in the Asia region (SCS), military beyond Asia is minor, little global military reach (M)
- the Chinese are suffering from an identity crisis, when traditional Chinese values meet global culture under the circumstance of globalisation, cultural erosion due to TNCs (C)
18
Q
what are the strengths and weaknesses of india
A
strengths:
- lots of good alliances, democratic nation, US and India’s relationship, they both worry about china (P)
- high skilled knowledgeable economy, wider industrial base through increasing higher education opportunities, india has more engineering graduates per year than the US and China combined
- Pharmaceuticals and biotechnology defence, call centres, Bangalore (EC)
- good climate allows double cropping along with its energy resources, large coal reserves in the north supplies nearly all heavy industry in india, autarkic development?
weaknesses:
- need manufacturing, a lot of red tape has meant that attracting manufacturing has been difficult (EC)
- they need massive modernisation in their military equipment, sophisticated hardware needed (M)
- trade unions are getting bigger due to low pay in industries, political instability (D/P)
19
Q
what are the strengths and weaknesses of the emerging power of russia
A
strengths:
- large oil and gas reserves (EN,EC)
- high literacy rate at 99.73% and therefore high levels of educated workforce (D)
- they have a very strong leader and government leading to power (P)
weaknesses:
- limited access to navy due to lack of ports, naval and aircraft stock ageing, one aircraft carrier dates back to the soviet era (M)
- global warming more severe, 2.5x faster than the rest of the world (EN)
- russia is 9th largest economy but it is very dependant on oil and gas exports (produces half of its GDP), very vulnerable to price fluctuations (EC)
20
Q
what are the strengths and weaknesses of the emerging power of brazil
A
strengths:
- allies with the USA, bilateral relationship allowing for economic growth (P)
- most biologically diverse country in the world, harbouring 10-18% of the world’s total biota, amazon, supports global initiatives (EN)
- global reputation as a football nation, famous for the Rio carnival, hosted 2-14 world cup and 2016 olympics (C)
weaknesses:
- relies on primary products for export rather than manufacturing, no added value but does product half of south America’s GDP (EC)
- deforestation and climate change, rainforest, large threat (EN)
- large amount of ethnic groups leading to cultural clash and conflict, politically less stable protests every year since 2013 (C+P)
21
Q
how have the BRIC countries grown over time?
A
- they have obtained more stable governments meaning they have more plans in place for development, education and healthcare, seen through china
- they have put in more efforts for education and so they are obtaining a more qualified population, attractive for investment
- they have become more involved in global trade, some are key trading partners for many countries through developments in manufacturing high-value goods, no longer having to depend on core regions to add value to their resources (dependency model)
22
Q
what are the general trends in terms of the strengths and weaknesses of emerging powers
A
- Countries with ageing, or even declining populations (Russia, Japan, some EU countries and even China) face major problems in the future in paying for increasingly costly healthcare at the same time as their workforce shrinks
- Shortages of physical resources could derail the ambitions of some countries (India) whereas growing pollution could stall the growth of others (China)
- Countries with modern infrastructure, balanced economic sectors and good energy supplies (China, Brazil, Mexico) will do better than ones yet to develop these (India, Indonesia, Nigeria)
23
Q
summaries rostow’s model of development, indicating what is needed to move onto the next stage
A
It shows how any country can move up stages, goes up through money and then can start to focus on social development
Traditional society, pre-conditions for take off, take-off, drive to maturity, high mass consumption
Traditional society (Dem. Rep of Congo)- subsistence farming, unstable gov, no geopolitical relations, volatile currency, rely on IGOs to add value. NEED: investment in infrastructure, need stable gov to increase investment from charities (no corruption)
Pre-conditions for take off (Chad)- secondary rising, infrastructure developing, NEED: good health care to be able to work, make it more appealing for FDI through lowering taxes, deregulate markets, improve soft power
Take-off (Thailand)- high manufacturing, poor human rights, NEED: currently only making low-value goods (diversify), more smart power, better human rights
Drive to maturity (China)- big rise in TNCs and soft power, growth in inequality, NEED: increase in cultural influence through soft power, china need to adopt democratic views
High mass consumption- technological advancements, high middle class
24
Q
what are the positives and negatives of Rostow’s model?
A
positives:
- shows how development, politics and the economy are all linked
- if they had the investment they are likely to grow
negatives:
- doesnt take into account that economic development comes at the cost of other nations (colonialism)
- not a level playing field, doesnt start at the same level
- doesnt take into account geopolitical relations
25
summarise the world systems theory of development
- shows the growing interdependence between all three economies, takes into consideration growth/role of developing, recognises the three types of economies
- implies that the semi-periphery are the most important as they drive and fuel growth, they are seeing the most growth, which is fuelled by the core
- he claimed that the emerging regions drive the world economy, the western core now owns and consumes more than 25% of goods and services
- the peripheral regions rely on the core regions to exploit their raw materials, largely from colonialism where western countries assumed over countries rich in raw materials, unequal trade where core regions added value and therefore made profit from their goods
- he takes a macro-economic approach where all three areas are interconnected and that the global capitalism system still relies on some countries to remain poor to exploit
- explicitly shows the importance of migration
26
what are the strengths and weaknesses of the world systems theory of development
strengths:
- holistic perspective allows for more abstract conclusions
- inclusion of concept of semi-periphery
weaknesses:
- there are more causes for underdevelopment than just capitalism such as corruption and conflict
- he puts too much of an emphasis on economics and the dominance of capitalism, doesn’t take into consideration political ideologies
- core, semi periphery and periphery categories are too vague
27
Explain how development theories explain the changing patterns of power?
Dependency model
- the peripheral countries are indeed currently dependant on the core countries for trade and are most often exploited by the core regions which further hinders their economic prosperity
World systems’ theory
- shows how there is a growing interdependence between all three economies, indicating the growing importance of the periphery areas in the global economy through the cheap labour and raw materials for the other economies
Rostow’s modernisation theory
- shows how any country can move up stages as they become richer and how as a country becomes more developed it means that they can start to focus on their social development in order to reach the final stage of development
28
what does the kondratiev cycle show?
- the global economy is very volatile, it has always been and will always be
- recovery is dependant on innovation, declines and then bounces back with innovation
- refers to cycles, lasting about 40-60 years, experienced by capitalist economies
- a kondratiev wave is referred to a long term economic cycle which is indicated by periods of evolution and self correction, brought about by technological innovation that results in a long period of prosperity
29
what is an import substitution economy?
autarkic development, substituted anything they needed by using what they produce, favouring your own producers
30
summarise frank's dependency model
- argues that a relationship between developed and developing nations is one of dependency, both countries give and take
- the developed nations deliberately exploit the poor to maintain power
Core give: manufactured goods, aid, polluting industry and political and economic ideas
Peripheral give: political support, debt repayments, raw materials and brain drain
- the core are also dependant on the peripheral countries for their resources, they need the resources to add value
- the core countries supply. Polluting industry, e.g. coca cola
- to escape this cycle the peripheral countries need to retain their primary products and invest in processing and manufacturing, thus adding value and employment
- the updated model shows semi-peripheral countries, BRIC countries
31
what are the strengths and weaknesses of frank's dependency model?
positive:
- simple and timeless, three categories of countries is true, UK add value to imported materials
- highlights the relative power of the core over the periphery and mechanisms used to maintain power
negative:
- doesnt acknowledge migration
- very vague, doesnt account for the emerging powers/countries who bridge the gap between the core and periphery and play an important role in driving the global economy
- natural disasers, lack of resources and conflict are things that limit development yet they are not mentioned here
32
how do the developed countries defavorise the developing nations
- they exploit their workforce and resources, as they become wealthier though they will no longer be able to do this
- neo-colonial mechanisms and a net transfer of wealth from developing to developed world are responsible
- tariffs are added to any processed imports, this imbalance in the terms of trade remains unfavourable to developing countries
- to escape this cycle, the developing countries must retain their primary products and invest in processing and manufacturing, thus adding value and employment
33
what are the three ways in which superpowers and emerging national play a key role in global action (explained)?
1) crisis response
- poor nations rely on aid from superpowers for recovery, e.g. Haiti, their appeals for assistance after their hurricane only brought in 25% of what it needed
- they are less resilient to crises and so rely on the richer nations for recovery
- natural disasters, famine or a serious disease outbreak
- the 2014 ebola epidemic, the USA, UK and france led the crisis response in Liberia, Sierra Leone and guinea, deploying military and medical assets
2) conflict
- the usa supporting Afghanistan through providing weapons and recruiting fighters, with the American funding they resisted soviet troops, preventing the conflict spreading out into other countries
- responding to conflict, such as the threat from al-qaeda or ISIS
- since 2001, the USA has led a global effort against islamic terroism in Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, east africa and the Middle East
3) climate change
- they are being called upon to play a key role in global action against climate change
- they are the largest emitters and so they are key to engaging in climate agreements
34
explain the overlap between economic and military alliances and geo strategy
it creates interdependence in terms of geostrategy
| - Economic prosperity requires geopolitical stability which is ensured by military alliances
35
explain how the UN's involvement with climate change has ensured geopolitical stability
They carry out extensive research so that the international community is aware of what is happening and what might happen in the future. Famine and drought can cause civil unrest.
- Were central to the Marrakesh agreement where developed nations have agreed to help developing countries reach climate goals by providing funding and suppling green technology. This helps to maintain geopolitical stability because countries work together to ensure climate goals are met meaning there is less conflict over natural resources (e.g. water).
- the 2015 Paris agreement marked when countries agreed to significantly reduce emissions
- However, it is weakened by a lack of accountability/consequences meaning it is not legally binding and there is no real incentive to comply (Revealed Preference Theory). Failure to do so may cause conflict.
36
why do superpowers have a high demand for resources?
- rising middle class means that there is an increased demand for fossil fuels as they start to use resource-intensive appliances
- due to their large population it leads to them demanding more food and water
- rising wealth contributes in the increase in demand for minerals as they turn towards more premium products
- rising demand for consumer goods from the rise in the wealth, perfume consumption up by 133%
- threatened water resources due to rise in showers and toilets as people escape poverty, consumerism
37
explain what environmental degradation is, linking in overfarming and desertification
environmental degradation- a worsening in the quality of the environment
overarming leads to environmental degradation that eventually leads to desertification
38
what impact is this high demand of resources having on the environment? (form synoptics)
- overfarming is leading to land degradation and therefore leads to desertification
- carbon footprint of population is increasing due the increased meat consumption, need for resources results in higher carbon emissions due to need for extraction
- the need for resources such as palm oil is leading to forest loss as they are having to burn down natural forest (carbon release) but soon the soils nutrients will be insufficient, resulting in desertification forest loss and so less carbon sequestration and more carbon to be released
- flooding through the extraction of groundwater due to higher demand, leading to dry soils and therefore this can become impermeable as a salt crust is formed
39
explain what superpower resource demands are having on emissions (demand of fossil fuels)
global carbon emissions in 2015
1) China (29%)
2) USA (14%)
3) EU (10%)
- eastern countries are seeing increasing co2 emissions, Asia and Oceania up by 7.5%, as they develop
- russia have seen decreases in emissions perhaps not as they are trying to reduce emissions but due to their fall in manufacturing and failing economy, when they bounce back this is scheduled to go back up again
- africa have very low emissions, South Africa is the main emitter (emerging nation)
- between 1990 and 2014 china's emissions increased by 286%- over 5 times the rate of global increase
- superpowers, exceptionally large consumer society, they can afford polluting appliances
- any attempt to reduce greenhouse gases will fail until big emitters agree as they contribute so much
40
how do superpowers resource demands for food cause environmental degradation
- china's large pork industry as a result of the rising wealth
- as their income rise they can afford to eat more and more meat, cattle pumping out methane
- India's demand for food and water are unsustainable as even today India struggles with adequate water supply
- the impact of overpopulation in superpower nations is causing environmental degradation due to the high rise in the amount of yield to satisfy demand, environmentally harmful methods of farming (intensive farming)
41
what is happening to industrial water used, forest loss and global warming as a result of superpower resource needs
industrial water use
- hydroponic farming is farming in water
- USA's largest exporter in agriculture and therefore has complex irrigation systems, uses the most water
forest loss
- africa and south America, rainforest loss
- europe's is extremely low
global warming
- the USA and India have caused a disproportionate amount of global warming relative to its size
- as counties globalise and expand their economies they increase their emissions, globalisation = environmental degradation, need for degrowth
42
can you become a global superpower without damaging the environment?
yes:
- through the use of renewable energy you can develop further whilst protecting the environment
- when you have reached a certain stage you can afford to run your economy on a cleaner model, as seen in china
- the rise of green Brazil proves its success through 47% of energy being green
- growing incomes leads to the ability to develop to purchase sustainable products, electric cars
no:
- you need to undertake manufacturing in order to develop your economy
- globalisation and the increase in global supply chains, environmental damage through transport costs
- our economy is run on carbon emissions, would need large scale restructuring which is not possible in the emerging markets
- the emissions of the USA as the no.1 emitter of carbon imply that it is not possible to achieve hegemony/superpower status without emitting
43
what are the three UN climate change conferences?
KYOTA AGREEMENT 1997
- first time countries agreed to cut greenhouse gases over a 5 year period
- they agreed on varying degrees:
EU- 8% (combined emissions, perhaps easier to cut down collectively)
USA- 7%
Russia- 0%
the USA pulled out of this perhaps as a lot of money comes from manufacturing, it is a very large country, they all drive big cars, varying climates rely on heating and air con
PARIS AGREEMENT 2015
- to keep global temps below 2ºC above preindustrial temps
- rich countries must financially support developing countries to use renewable resources
- nearly 200 countries agreed, the USA agreed but then trump pulled out once in power, china and russia agreed
MARRAKESH 2016
- focused on helping developing nations to transition to renewable energy
- agreeing funds from developed nations to developing nations
- developed having to help, the USA have had their time of industrialisation, their turn now, dependency
- the protection of renewable energy was also agreed
44
what is china's approach to renewable energy?
- they have been heavily investing in renewable energy as they look towards technological innovation, they want to patent goods
- they are using other countries to do polluting jobs in order to make their country look good
- they have moved polluting industries to the countryside as it is the urban areas which are measured for pollution
45
explain the willingness of the USA to act to reduce carbon emissions
YES:
- they have shown global leadership since 2005 reduced global emissions most of all, from 2005-15 US wind power tripled in output and solar energy by ten times
- Obama introduced measures to reduce emissions through greater energy efficiency, carbon pollution standards for electricity generation and promoting renewable energy
- president Biden has promoted a more forward thinking to climate change, rejoining the Paris agreement, carbon-free power supply by 2035
NO:
- trump imposed a very much manufacturing based economy, still has this, nationalism, economy based around manufacturing
- reducing energy emissions would cost energy companies money, thus harming the economy, despite being the 2nd largest GDP, business executives could not be in favour of this
- only 45% of USA believe that climate change is a serious problem, this is due to a long-standing 'cimate-sceptimism'
46
explain the EU's willingness to act on reducing emissions
54% of people see climate change as a serious problem
YES:
- they have been at the forefront of climate initiatives, e.g. emissions reductions (working with manufacturers of vehicles) and grants to encourage renewable energy
- They have invested in green technology innovation meaning they can sell their patented goods to other countries for a high profit enabling them to profit from climate change action.
- they provide large grants for companies to convert to or invest in renewable energy
- They are beginning to experience the impacts of CC, e.g., more extreme weather events and flooding in the North Sea and rising temperatures in the Mediterranean leading to drought
NO:
- the CAP protected european farmers from imports which resulted in intensive farming methods that were extremely harmful to the environment, under criticism for their farming methods
47
explain the willingness of russia to act to reduce carbon emissions
YES:
- they surprisingly signed up to the 2015 Paris agreement
- they have invested heavily in nano-technology, energy efficiency and laws, perhaps to increase soft power and improve geo-political relations
- In 1990 they promised to reduce emissions by 30%, they actually reduced them by 35% (mainly due to their economic crash) their emissions will most likely increase as they recover
NO:
- their economy is heavily reliant on oil, they are not interested in stopping this
- as its economy stabilises it is likely that they will see an increase in emissions
48
explain the willingness of china to act to reduce carbon emissions
YES:
- in 2016 they finally agreed to reduce emissions and is now heavily investing in renewable resources, find a comparative advantage, innovation
- they've become increasingly concerned about their reputation, through going green they can improve their reputation, spending lots of money on going green
- province of Qinghai ran on 100% renewable energy for 7 days proving it is possible, provided for their pop of 5.6 million people
- they have accepted that things cannot return back to normal after COVID, expanded initiatives such as 'grain for green' and the 'ecological function zoning'
- in 2018, china's renewable consumption was 38% larger than the USAs and triple that of Germany, 29% growth in renewables in 2018 alone
NO:
- in 2018 manufacturing still accounted for 41% of Chinese GDP
- coal still accounts for 58% of china's total primary energy consumption in 2018
- only 18% of china's pop see climate change as a serious issue, their focus is largely on economic development not environmental issues, they agreed to reduce emissions after 2030
49
what is the definition of a malthusian crisis and explain what boserup believed in with population increase
malthusian crisis- when resources aren't sufficient for the growing population, people must die, perhaps get rid of the poor people that do not contribute to society
boserup- as population increases it will initiate innovation and technological advancements
50
compared to the rest of the world, how significant are the contributions that superpowers make to carbon emissions and global warming
- china and USA have the worst air pollution, the two highest GDP countries have the greatest emissions, relationship
- Africa have very low emissions with south Africa being the main emitter (BRICS nation, emerging)
- any attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will fail until the big emitters agree as they account for such a large percentage of global emissions
- the USA and China have been reluctant to set emission reduction targets whereas the EU lead in climate action, the EU and US emission are static or falling (greater efficiency and some green policies) but china’s emissions are still rising (emerging manufacturing)
- the superpowers are very globalised and so they operate on a global scale resulting in high emissions from transport of goods internationally
51
explain the reasons why there are differences in the willingness to act on environment issues
- their economy may be centralised towards an emitting industry (USA with manufacturing and Russia with Oil)
- their degree of development, not all can afford to engage in environmental practises, the EU have patented many goods ans so they have the money to invest
- if they have a need to develop their soft power, perhaps they need too improve their reputation (china)
- the intentions and values of the political figures, (e.g. EU, Biden vs Trump)
52
what is the impact of the rise in middle-class consumption on resources and the environment?
- depletion of water resources with increased dishwashes, pools and daily showers
- increased demand for meat, dairy products and sugar as these countries transition to western diets. (cattle=GGs)
- availability of rare minerals decreases due to the increase in spending in electrical, medical and laser devices (coltain)
- damage to ecosystems as abstraction of resources becomes more illegal and uncontrolled due to the rise in demand leading to exploitation of the environment, perhaps to a permanent damage to ecosystems, desertification
- more mining, oil drilling and deforestation in order to access raw materials
- more use of water and therefore more polluted waste water
53
explain how the future growth in middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers will impact rare earths in terms of the environment, price and availability
- business of generating earth elements worth US$4 billion a year, collective worth of companies estimated at $5 trillion
- cerium (catalytic convertors) and neodymium (wind turbines and hybrid cars)
environment
- a great deal of water, acid and electricity is used in extraction process to separate the ore from toxins, many of which are carcinogenic
- processing one tonne of rare earths can produce 2000 tonnes of toxic waste, if this mixes with surface water it will have a major environmental impact
- in Baotou (a small village in china), 10 million tonnes of waste water per year is pumped into containment ponds from where it seeps into groundwater and drinking sources
price
- the higher value of these materials have meant the expansion of mining in other parts of the world increased due to economic benefits
- more basic metals such as copper, tin and platinum at risk of supply shortages and dramatic price changes
- as china's growth has slowed since 2010, commodity prices have fall back due to lower demand
availability
- in recent years china have restricted the refining and eventual export of the products to keep prices high
- the demand for lithium-based batteries is very high and could be hard to meet in the future
- china has tried to guarantee commodity supplies by buying up companies overseas by investing in africa to supply commodities
54
explain how the future growth in middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers will impact water in terms of the environment, price and availability
Environment
- the increase in demand of water has meant that people are going towards more environmentally harmful sources of water, not sustainable
Price
- prices are expected to rise significantly due to the increase in water demand and the increase in water scarcity, china has double the UN definition of water scarcity
- prices are rising due to the increase in the privatisation of water, due to the lack of water available privately owned water supplies are able to push prices up significantly, leading to conflict amongst residents, water crisis in Bolivia
Availability
- In some states of India, groundwater is being used three times faster than it can be replenished, by 2030 60% of areas will be facing water scarcity
- As glaciers melt and river discharge decreases due to their source diminishing, climate change could make the availability of water worse
- many Californian farmers are using more groundwater but the water table is dropping and ground subsidence has been noted
- some emerging powers are already experiencing water supply problems, especially India
- in Beijing total consumption exceeded supply by 70% in 2012 as more residents installed showers and flush toilets
55
explain how the future growth in middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers will impact oil in terms of the environment, price and availability
Environment
- global oil demand was about 95 million barrels per day in 2015, many environmental impacts, oil leaks, global warming, rise by around 30% by 2030
- there will be more mining, oil drilling and deforestation in the quest to access raw materials
Price
- meeting the demand of oil may lead to price rises and/or supply shortages, supply is quite inelastic
- through the increasing demand it can lead to Saudi Arabia influencing the price of oil by cutting back supply leading to a significant rise in price.
Availability
- predictions that oil will run out by 2061, ‘peak oil’ has certainly passed which has put pressure on more remote areas such as the Arctic Ocean from oil exploitation
- as the middle class increases it will lead to them having higher aspirations to own a car, and therefore the increase in income can cause a proportionately bigger % increase in demand
56
explain how the future growth in middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers will impact staple grains in terms of the environment, price and availability
- china have seen cereal consumption go up by 364%
Environment
- the green revolution in India caused soil degradation and chemical runoff of excess fertilisers resulting in eutrophication
- consumption of rice has increased by 50% in sub-Saharan Africa causing further concerns for the environmental impacts
Price
- with the fall in the amount of staple grains being grown it could lead to prices rising, squeezing the poorest
- prices of wheat, corn, soybeans and rice are already twice what they were in 2000 through the straining soy and grain reserves
Availability
- land once used for staple food grains will be converted to produce meat and dairy products, loss in grains being produced
- cereal consumption in China has gone up by 364% and meat by 99%
- growers are going to have to feed twice as many city inhabitants by 2040
57
give some statistics on the rise of the middle class
- the global middle class is expected to increase from 2 billion in 2012 to 5 billion by 2030
- in 2016 china had 150 million middle class members, expected to reach one billion by 2030
- 4.9 billion people middle class in 2020, 3.2 billion of this in asia
58
other than staple grains what is happening to demand for food and metal industry as middle income earners rise
- demand for meat, dairy products and sugar will also rise as these countries transition to 'western' diets
- changing diets in china leading to rise in obesity
- china's demand for raw materials is such that it accounted for 90% of the global growth in sea traffic in the 21st century
- china's steel industry is biggest in the world, a steel industry x4 the size of the USAs, they are the biggest producer and consumer of steel in the world
59
explain what has happened to the economic centre of gravity?
it has moved as economic gain might
| - it has shifted from the west well into the east recently, however western values are still just as influential
60
what are 5 reasons for china's investment in africa
- china’s belt and road initiative (2013), their plan to open out global trade markets, maximise trade with new markets, $1 trillion plan, Tazara railway erected in 1976, railway is the most efficient way for transporting freight and people (inter-model containerisation), migration leading to economic development
- perhaps it is to gain influence rather than for economic gain, strategic policy that they want to gain soft power
- diplomacy and allies help gain power in IGOs, voting power
- natural resources in order to obtain power, in 2010 80% of all african exports to china were minerals
- fewer strings attached, no human rights, exploitation
61
what is china investing in Kenya and what are the benefits and drawbacks to Kenya of this investment
Their investment is very much centralised around infrastructure developments, building sufficient roads and railways in order to transport and export kenyan goods, access the Indian Ocean, A $3.2 billion railway that links the capital of Nairobi to Mombasa’s port
Kenya’s geographical advantage and comparative strength in political stability and economic development has made Kenya China’s focal point in their ‘One belt one road’ policy
The Maritime Silk Road (MSR) forms one part of the BRI and it involes the upgrading of the Mombasa Port, the building of a new ultra-modern port in Lamu and the construction of a new standard gauge railway line (SGR). The railways line is estimated to cost $25 billion, 90% of that being financed by China EXIM Bank
benefits:
Kenya has become the second-largest economy in the East African region, fourth largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa
According to the World Bank’s Doing Business Index, Kenya has risen over 40 places to rank 80 in 2017
Ernst & Young identifies Kenya as the second most attractive investment destination in Africa after Morocco
drawbacks:
Kenya was identified as one of three African countries at most risk of debt distress due to its participation in its Belt and Road initiative
Kenya’s public debt has surpassed $50 billion, they owe 72% of its bilateral debt and 21% of its overall debt to China
The USA refer to China’s involvement in Kenya as a form of ‘debt-trap diplomacy’
62
what is china investing in Djibouti and what are the benefits and drawbacks to Djibouti of this investment
What are they investing in?
They are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative
China want to take advantage of their geo-strategic location, between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, very close to the Middle East’s oil
Infrastructure investments, a railway and two airports ($420 million contract) and a pipeline to supply Djibouti with water from Ethiopia ($320 million contract)
benefits:
China are building a $3.5 billion free-trade zone, expected to be Africa’s largest , it is expected to create 200,000 new jobs and handle over $7 billion in trade from 2018 to 2020
drawbacks:
Their public external debt is said to have risen from 50% of their GDP in 2016 to 104% by the end of 2018, much based on its Chinese lending, in 2018 it was estimated that they owed at least $1.2 billion to China
63
what are the overall benefits and drawbacks to African countries of investment from china
positives:
- The free trade zone that is being built in Djibouti is expected to create 200,000 new jobs and handle over $7 billion in trade from 2018 to 2020
- $13 billion investment into infrastructure, greater connectivity, reduce transport costs across the country, become more attractive for investment, TNCs
negatives:
- 'debt-trap diplomacy', $132 billion loans from china to africa between 2006 and 2017, public debt in Kenya equates to 60% of GDP
- environmental degradation, exploitation of natural resources due to fewer regulations, coltan
- local markets put out of business, EOS of china
64
what are the overall benefits and drawbacks to china of its investment in africa
positives:
- through setting up military bases on the port of momasa in Djibouti, gain access to the Red Sea and the middle east, contract to lease the site to reply 10,000 troops
- alliances formed, gain voting power in IGOs
- benefits through leakages, TNCs
negatives:
- conflict has arisen with the USA, until 2014 the US invested more into africa than china, they have a base, threat of usa coming back
- conflict with local communities and IGOs, exploitation of the africans has meant that some IGOs are not willing for china to be a part of their group
- interdependent on other countries to supply them with resources, threat of the USA blocking china's sea routes in SCS, they could prevent the transport of their African exports
65
explain the rise in economic importance of china and india and their relations
- india and china represent 36% of the world's pop,18% of global GDP, 32% of global carbon emissions
- both china and india are a part of g20
- they are ideological rivals, india is the world's largest democracy, whereas china is a communist dictatorship
- they share a border but parts are disputed (aksai chin)
- china created strong economic alliance with Pakistan focused on $54 billion Chinese investment in CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) but Pakistan and india have tense, antagonistic relations
- china has the upper-hand in terms of economics, as india has a large trade deficit (imports more than exports) with china
66
what tensions have arisen between china and india
- they are rivals in outer space, they both have advanced space programmes, both have an aircraft carrier and are building more, demonstrating they have regional (if not global) naval ambitions
- china is concerned about India's military interest in the south china sea
- 2100 mile-long disputed border, competing to build infrastructure along the border, in September 2020 china accused india of firing shots at its troops
67
explain the economic and political tensions between asian nations
- tensions are historic although they have improved in the 21st century with large amounts of trade now occurring
- heavy investment by the usa into japan to aid its post-war recovery like the european Marshall plan, increased tensions as Japan adopted a western capitalist economic recovery, not liked by chain
- the power of china to take over tibet, conflicts have arisen, china is said to be suppressing Tibetan religion, culture and freedom of expression, china have encouraged ethnic Chinese migrants to move to tibet, put in their ideologies, they have put in a high-speed rail link to help
- conflicts with Taiwan, put in sanctions , no peace treaty has ever been signed
- the mekong river, damming, conflicts with Laos and Thailand
- north-south water transfer project, taking water from Tibetan plateau
68
explain the political and cultural tensions in the Middle East
cultural
- it is a melting point of different religions, ideologies conflict, sunni (Saudi Arabia, syria, turkey) vs Shia (Iran, Iraq)
- their different attitudes to trade, special relations and women differ, this means that relationships between them are not always easy
political
- high level of contested land, Israel-palestine conflict
- since 2011 the rise of the extremist group islamic state in Iraq and syria has created wars, terrorism and a refugee crisis
- the Kurdish people (in Iran, Iraq, sure and turkey) are demanding their own state
- the complex web of alliances and geopolitical relations within middle eastern countries is a major ongoing challenge to stability
69
explain syria
- 2/3 of pop now refugees
- Damascus was the hub of trade, most religiously significant buildings
- nodal point for trade
- Muslim population: 70% sunni, 3% shia, Alevis 13% (Assad's part of this, west coast)
- half of GDP comes from oil and agriculture
- rising inequalities, Alevis getting everything and benefitting the most, creating conflict
- civilians vs miltiary
70
explain the war in syria
- it is a proxy war, Russian-backed military vs US-backed military
players are:
- the Syrian gov (Russians backing, sending in weapons)
- the opposition (civilians, USA backing, providing weapons), ISIS, Rojava (Kurds in the north)
- rojava want to keep their territory from ISIS, they are an autonomous and progressive region who do not pose threats to ISIS, they just want security, US in 2019 sent in troops to Rojava to help them but then pulled out as they thought their approach was too short-term, straight after turkey invaded rojava, missile strikes in the aim to get back their land, they didn't like the power that they gained in their country
- the UN nations veto powers are completely divided, russia and china keep on preventing action, NATO want to intervene, chemical bombs being dropped and food cut off by assad
- syria's geo-strategic location where russia uses it as a trade route to get to europe, they dont want syria to fall to the west, access to energy resources
- iraq and Iran have same ideologies, Saudi Arabia and Qatar provide help for rebel forces
71
where did the UN go wrong and why hasn't the Syrian crisis been sorted out?
- it is all come due to a weakness in the UN security council, they should've stepped in, prevented oppression vs freedom conflicts, prevention of this proxy war
While 13 or 14 council members are willing to act, the Russian Federation uses its veto power to prevent action, it is all down to them, they are mobbing hospitals
The governments of Russia, Iran and China have already secured huge contracts in the hydrocarbons, minerals, telecommunications, construction and electricity sectors among others, investment from BRIC countries also visible
Estimated $200-300 billion for the reconstruction of Syria, this would take much longer if western economies were not to get involved
72
how might the Syrian conflict be stopped?
A surrender cease-fire, the number of these cease-fires have increased markedly since Feb 2014 when rebels began to see serious military defeats, to prevent a humanitarian crisis that would lead to starvation on rebels and civilians
The security council said it would only reengage with a peacekeeping mission if combatants would cease the use of heavy machinery
Social media may have an influence, naming and shaming, to persuade the guilty parties to change their behaviour
Governments are now arguing for the UN’s institutional reform to get rid of the veto altogether
73
what are the economic and environmental tensions in the middle east
economic
- the wider middle east region has become an essential supplier oil from Libya, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the Middle East contains 60% of proven oil and so no superpower can ignore it
- turkey sells its water resources
- different attitudes to trade and special relations means that relationships between them might not be easy
environmental
- past conflicts often resulted in damage to oil installations particularly in Kuwait after the first gulf war in 1991 (when the iraq leader tried to take over Kuwait), opposers target their oil resources, destroy them
- the abundance of oil resources in the Middle East has meant that they have seen conflict arise
74
explain how the space race may be considered as an economic cost of maintaining global military power
- in the past space programmes such as russia sending firm person to space and the US putting first man on the moon was a great sign of power
- china and india both have their own space programmes which are costing over $1 billion
- spending by NASA on space exploration totalled $18.5 billion in 2016
- budgets for space programmes have declines, perhaps they now turn to nuclear
- asian countries such as india and china have adopted major space programmes and are able to launch space flights much cheaper, Indian orbital missions to mars in 2013 , satellite and ground tracking infrastructure on earth costing $72 million
75
why is it so hard to predict what might happen in the future in terms of global power?
- TECHNOLOGY, artificial intelligence, impact of technology, hacking, perhaps you won't be able to maintain superpower status without technological advancements, terrorism, targeted attacks with drones (perhaps china's reason for investment in tech)
- what are the future industries going to be, what type of industries will be essential (dependance of primary resources)
- world climate, will natural disasters wipe out Western Europe, future of tectonics and climate
- global diseases, was COVID deliberately used by china to wipe out the west, civil unrest through poor management, emphasises the global connections, deglobalise?
- rise in the far right, problems with governance, you need a stable government
76
Why are emerging powers rising in power?
1) increasing wealth, large rime in global economy, alliances and IGOs
2) growing spheres of influence, China into Djibouti, using hard power to grow spheres of influence
3) increasing their military presence, China around the Indian Ocean
4) increasing global presence, soft power, coerce people into decisions
Geography May exams
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