define superpower
HEGEMON
a state with pre-eminent global influence
-> whose decisions have far reaching consequences beyond borders, allies and enemies
defining global power is not simplistic because it is multidimensional, and is not distributed in a singular way
what is an emerging superpower?
a state that is growing significantly in power and beginning to extend a more global influence
Dunn’s model of superpower status
🏛️
argues that economic power underpins military, political, cultural, and geographical powers necessary
Mackinder geostrategic theory
🗺️
- argued that whoever controlled Europe and Asia would control the world
- this is because they would control the world’s biggest landmass
-> believed that physical size was fundamental in superpower status
- access to sea ports also important - eg. China in Sri Lanka
Historically very important factor in superpower status: larger the country = larger the area that it directly influences + more physical resources
-> overtime, seems to have been a shift away from a power base within geographical control, as the power base now lies in digital influence
economic power is important to achieve/maintain because… (+ example)
Underpins the other power spheres as economic stability is required to use and improve the other pillars (Dunn’s model)
USA - largest total GDP
* = high % of international trade = currency used as reserve currency -> reliance on USA
-> EG Turkey had problems in 2018 because they had lots of debts in dollars and their currency kept depreciating vs the US Dollar, so they could not repay their debts (Frank’s dependecy theory)
- A large GDP creates influence as a potential market and as the home of TNCs = FDI -> money for tech and research expansion for TNCs
- Trade blocs -> market access + political stability because of reliance
- Ability to give aid = conditions behind aid benefit the lender
GDP overused as an individual indicator?
military power is important to achieve/maintain because… (+ example)
Mackinder geostrategic theory
- Historically, the number of troops/ ships in the military = best indicator of a country’s ability to attack others or defend itself from threats
-> nuclear weapons = mutually assured destruction (Cold War; Cuban missile crisis1962)
Dependent on demographic power: the number of military personnel that can be deployed
Dependent on economic power: budget determines investment in military technology, which increases power
cultural power is important to achieve/maintain because… (+ example)
With globalisation increasingly leading to a global culture, cultural influence is a key aspect of global power
- dominance of media
- TNCs/migrants introducing cultural products
- imposition of viewpoint embedded in international agreements*
-> Indicators: global spread of music, fashion, food, language, religion
The USA has the highest percentage of the world’s 20 largest TNCs - 27%
- International law largely created by Western Countries = eurocentric ideas (eg. capitalism)
demographic power is important because… + example
- a large population -> a large diaspora and workers at TNCs -> 1.4 billion pop of China = able to provide TNCs with low labour costs and use this to grow its manufacturing sector
- assists economic power through a large market and economies of scale (so more profit)
- army can be larger
but also…. Singapore = regional power with major influence in South Asia yet only has a population of 5.6 million -> suggests that demographics are not the only thing that matters
access to natural resources is important because… + examples
Historically important as natural resources are essential to economic development
- eg. UK’s coal => catalysed the Industrial Revolution -> economic power
- BUT much of Africa has huge resource reserves but these have caused conflict + corruption -> hindered development
Corruption can mean that the gains do not accrue to the country (eg. BP in Nigeria a TNC + oil mafia)
Hard power + effectiveness
Mechanisms of maintaining power sit on a spectrum from ‘hard’ to ‘soft’ power, which vary in their effectiveness
where a country expresses its influence through coercive measures - economic sanctions/military force or threat
- eg. 2003: invaded Iraq in the Second Gulf War when economic sanctions (softer power) failed to persuade President Saddam Hussein to change policy
- eg. economic sanctions on Russia in 2022 for invasion of Ukraine
- eg. 2026 US military entered Venuezula and removed the president -> directly challenge socialist government to open the country up to trade and capitalist policies
- expensive and risky -> long-term political instability (military action may be seen as unnecessary or illegal -> the aggressor may lose allies and moral authority)
importance decreased over time
soft power + effectiveness
Mechanisms of maintaining power sit on a spectrum from ‘hard’ to ‘soft’ power, which vary in their effectiveness
country expresses its influence through its economic, political, moral or cultural influence -> subtle encouragement
- relies on a country having respected culture, values and politics, which may be enough to persuade some countries but not others
- applied well, is low cost and, because it is about creating alliances and friendly relations, may spread to other countries
- eg. USA’s cultural exports from its global media + TNCs
Globalisation seems to be making soft power more and more important
BRICs as an emerging superpower as a whole
economic
- combined GDP = $16 trillion = 8% less than that of USA (2014)
BRICs widening role environmentally
- BRICs increasingly important for global environmental governance
- China is the largest CO2 emmitter -> targets will only be met if BRICs cooperate
- reliance on BRICs
indirect power
Cold War // neo-colonialism
Multi-faceted, indirect control (political, economic, military, cultural) including neo-colonial mechanisms has become more important
- military alliances, e.g. USA (NATO) and the USSR (Warsaw Pact)
- foreign aid as a way to ‘buy’ support from developing and emerging nations
- support for corrupt and undemocratic regimes in the developing world, in return for their support for the superpower
neocolonialism:
- a debt-aid relationship - tied aid
- poor trade terms
eg. China in global south and western Asia BRI
define neocolonialism
Multi-faceted, indirect control (political, economic, military, cultural) including neo-colonial mechanisms has become more important
the use of economic, political and cultural power to gain and maintain indirect control over developing countries
neocolonialism in Ghana
🍫📉📈 + also a bonus one about Mozambique 🎣
Multi-faceted, indirect control (political, economic, military, cultural) including neo-colonial mechanisms has become more important
external influences on the price of cocoa exports
- tied to commodity traders in US and UK -> irregular price = irregular income + can’t escape poverty
- EU import tariffs are
much higher for processed cocoa then the raw material -> forced to export raw cocoa beans = they
lose out on the value added by processing them - WTO - to join, had to stop subsidising farmers = harder to compete with imported cheaper goods from other countries where it is subsidised
- Mozambique has given fishing rights to China, in return for infrastructure (hospitals, airports, roads) -> local fishermen are now out-competed, losing their source of income and instead having to work for Chinese fishing boats for less money
China as a rival to US hegemony
a number of emerging countries are considered increasingly important to global economic and political systems, as well as global environment governance
- economic: economic growth lifted** 68.5million people poverty in 5 years **-> believed China will become the world’s lagest economy by 2050, 1115% GDP increase 2000 -> 2020
- major player in global investment
- demographic: large workforce (1.38bill) = offer global TNCs low wage costs -> hence become the ‘workshop of the world’ => large market for goods BUT aging pop. may cause economy to collapse (12% of the population will
be over 65 2020) + little inwards migration - political: BRI initiative = increasing influence in global south -> China is now Africas biggest trading partner BUT doesn’t get involved globally in aid/crises // **open door policy 1978 **= more globalised BUT still mainly state owned
- military: China’s People Liberation Army has the world’s largest army + nuclear weapons BUT poor navy
- environment: largest CO2 emitter, but also leading green energy technology, export 70% of the world’s solar panels
- but still half of USA’s contribution to the global GDP
- Evaluation: Rising influence globally, but internal and external challenges remain.
Brazil as an emerging power - strengths and weaknesses?
evolving strengths and weaknesses which might inhibit or advance economic and geopolitical roles in the future
- ECONOMIC: important regionally for South American economy, produces more than 50% of S America’s GDP // large reserve of natural resources for exports + farming potential // energy and food security -> self-sufficient in producing and sourcing its own food and energy resources => not reliant
BUT economy repeatedly encounters boom bust phases which hinder development - POLITICAL: politically unstable, and corruption rife
- MILITARY: insignificant military
- CULTURAL: global reputation as a footballing nation and has won many world cups + 2016 Brazil Olympics
- ENVIRONMENTAL: deforestation + pollution is a major problem
Russia as an emerging power - strengths and weaknesses?
evolving strengths and weaknesses which might inhibit or advance economic and geopolitical roles in the future
- ECONOMIC: large economy and gas/oil reserves BUT overly dependent on oil and gas for revenue, which is not sustainable income for the future & EU sanctions have weakened the Ruble
- POLITICAL: veto power in the UN BUT strained global relations due to Ukraine
- MILITARY: nuclear weapons and large military BUT intervention has damaged relations with other countries
India as an emerging superpower - strengths + weaknesses?
evolving strengths and weaknesses which might inhibit or advance economic and geopolitical roles in the future
- ECONOMIC: annual growth rate 7%+ English speaking attracts TNCs + Global leader in IT technology BUT equality = 20% in poverty
- POLITICAL: G20 member and founder of UN BUT poor relations with Pakistan and China
- MILITARY: 4th largest military in terms of personnel and weaponry + has nukes
- DEMOGRAPHIC: majority of Indians are young = large pool of labour
available BUT migration of youth -> declining future population + brain drain of skilled workers
general trends of emerging powers?
ageing // resource supply // infrastructure // political engagement
- ageing/declining populations face major problems in the future in paying for increasingly costly healthcare at the same time as their workforce shrinks
- physical resource shortages -> derail the ambitions of some countries / growing pollution + environmental impact could stall the growth of others
- countries with modern infrastructure, balanced economic sectors and good energy supplies (China, Brazil, Mexico) will do better than ones yet to develop these (India, Indonesia, Nigeria)
-> any emerging power will need to engage with the rest of the world and become a leader on issues such as global security, the fight against terrorism, response to disasters and environmental issues. (China has failed to do so far)
Dependency Theory
views the world as having an economically developed core and underdeveloped periphery
- core deliberately exploit cheap periphery resources -> core gets more powerful
- link between trade and global influence - imperialism
- shows how economies become dependent - neocolonialism
BUT neglects internal economic changs which may shift global power - eg collapse of USSR
fails to identify why some countries become superpowers and not others
World System’s Theory
views the wrold as three-tiered, allowing countries to enter the semi-peripehery as they develop
- suggests hegemonic cores may decline, enabling other powers from semi-periph to challenge economic and political systems -> BRICs
- still a level of dependency - neocolonialism
- suggests that global power is not certain and may shift
best fit for the current pattern of developed, emerging and developing countries
but fails to identify why some countries become superpowers and not others
modernisation theory
- Suggests that economic development only begins when certain pre-conditions are met: modern infrastructure, education, banking and effective government
BUT
- based on American development (mass consumption and capitalism -> profit) so ignores sustainable development + large natural resource reserves enable some countries to skip some stages of devleopment
- does not suggest a country can decline
- only considers a country in isolation from the world, where the development
is the sole responsibility of the country itself - an increasingly
connected globalised world, the development of a country may be limited by international
politics or competition for trade by other states
useful in explaining how some countries manage to become wealthy
but not in identifying why some countries become superpowers and not others
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tectonic processes and hazards spev and key processes88
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hydrological cycle and water security83
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the carbon cycle43
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coasts key terms/located examples etc129
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globalisation spev 🌐53
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superpowers spev 💪🏻32
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diverse places located examples (better)36
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HHRI31
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recent examples for globalisation/superpowers23
