Technical Analysis:
3 principles
- based on supply and demand
- volume and price
- better informed traders tend to trade in lager volume
technical analysis:
3 assumptions
- market prices reflect both rational and irrational investor behavior
- efficient markets hypothesis does not hold
- market trends and patterns repeat themselves
technical analysis
4 advantages
2 disadvantage
- price & volume data easy to access
- 分析手段更客观
- 某些资产不产生未来现金流，无法用基本面分析定价，如commodities
- 基本面分析可能遇到财务报表粉饰
1。illiquid markets \ outside manipulation
4 types of charts
- line charts (closing prices)
- bar chart
- Candlestick chart (白涨黑跌)
- Point and figure chart
relative strength analysis
以某只股票价格除以（剔除）一个benchmark price（如SP500大盘指数）
显示走势相对强弱
linear scale
logarithmic scale
- 前者显示绝对变动
- 后者显示变动的百分比
- （某大盘指数数十年的涨势）
define:
updtrend line
downtrend line
- connecting increasing low
- connecting decreasing high
define:
support level
resistance level
change in polarity
- buying is sufficient to stop the decline
- selling is sufficient to stop the increase
支撑线突破后变为阻力线，阻力线突破后变为支撑线
common chart patterns
- Reversal patterns: head-and-shoulders, Double top, triple top, and for downtrend
- Continuation patterns: triangles, rectangles, flags and pennants (short-term triangles)
Head and Shoulders pattern
target price equation
- neckline +/- (headline - neckline)
Pennant pattern:
target price
C - (A - B)
technical indicators
Price-based 2
- Moving average: 最近n期价格平均值，取值时间越长，线越平滑，长期线与短期线交叉: golden cross, dead cross
- Bollinger Band: moving average +/- 2σ, 价格触及band上限卖，下限买
technical indicators
Momentum oscillators 4
- rate of Change oscillator (ROC): 今日减14日前，正买负卖；今日比14日前，百上买百下卖
- Relative Strength Index (RSI):上涨次数与下跌次数之比，再标准化成0-100内的数。>70超买，<30超卖
- Stochastic Oscillator: 今日与14日低之差比14日高低之差，k线超D线买，假设前提是上升趋势时往往收盘于高点，下降趋势收盘于低点
- Moving Average Convergence/Divergence “Mac Dee” : exponentially smoothed moving average
Technical Indicators
Sentiment 4
- put/call ratio: 看跌期权多，比率上升，悲观
- Volatility index (VIX): 恐慌性指数，market oversold + VIX extrem high = potential bullish
- margin debt: 融资，借钱炒
- short interest ratio: 卖空头寸占日成交量比例。大代表看空。但分析师对此解读有分歧
technical indicators:
flow-of-funds 4
- short-term trading index (TRIN): >1, 资金更多流入下跌股票，股票市场损失，<1，资金更多流入上涨股票
- mutual fund cash position: 市场下跌，现金头寸增加，上涨，现金头寸减少
- margin debts: 增加时代表股票买入量将增加
- IPO and secondary offerings: 增加代表价格正在高点（想卖高价）
common cycles
in technical analysis
- presidential cycle (pre-election year best)
- Decennial Pattern (10年周期，5年最佳，0年最差)
- 18-year cycle (3*18 = 54)
- Kondratieff Wave (54 years, K wave)
Elliot Wave Theory
Graph
+2 points
- 上升阶段：impulse phase 3升2降，corrective phase 2降1升
- 下降阶段相反
- Fibonacci sequence: ratio的使用（黄金比例成长）
intermarket analysis
5点
- 核心是运用relative strength analysis分析跨资产、跨国家市场的相对强度
- bond price 与 interest rate 反向
- bond price与stock price同向
- bond price与commodities反向
- USD与commodities price反向
a high volume most likely indicates
confirmation and contiunation of current trend
