3. Deterrence Stability

Question 1

What is the concept of deterrence stability?

Answer 1

possible, but not automatic

Early discussions were overly optimistic and emphazied numbers didn’t matter, did not fully consider the implications of vulnerability.

Question 2

What assumption underpins the logic of deterrence?

Answer 2

Vulnerability

If one side can reduce or eliminate its vulnerability, deterrence may fail.

Question 3

What is second-strike capability?

Answer 3

Ability to launch a devastating retaliation after absorbing a first strike

It is crucial for effective deterrence. The assumption the US could survive a first strike and relatiate shou not be taken for granted.

Question 4

True or false: First strike and first-use policy are the same

Answer 4

FALSE

first use = first to escate to nukes

They are distinct concepts in the context of deterrence.

Question 5

What happens if you cannot retaliate with sufficient force after absorbing a first strike?

Answer 5

You do not have a second-strike capability

This means you cannot deter an attack.

Question 6

What can undermine deterrence regarding second-strike capability?

Answer 6

Reasonable doubt about capability

Uncertainty can affect both sides.

Question 7

List the requirements for a retaliatory force.

Answer 7

• Stable peace-time operations
• Ability to survive an enemy attack
• Ability to make and communicate the decision to retaliate
• Ability to reach enemy territory with enough fuel
• Ability to penetrate enemy defenses
• Ability to destroy the target despite defenses

These requirements are essential for effective deterrence.

Question 8

What are civil defenses?

Answer 8

Non-combatants efforts to minimize the impact of attacks

eg. telling people to hide under desks, use of bomb shelters, prior training/drills

Question 9

Why is early warning important in deterrence?

Answer 9

Faulty early warning systems may lead to temptations

Non-democracies can launch surprise attacks more effectively than democracies so they can catch adversiaries off gaurd.

Question 10

What does numbers refer to in the context of deterrence?

Answer 10

Reasonable sufficiency independent of adversary’s number

Few weapons increase temptations for aggression and preemption. Also depends on targeting doctrine

Question 11

What is the significance of mobility in deterrence?

Answer 11

Increase mobility can deter an attack because it shows an ability to retaliate. Mobile ICBMs and having 1/3 bombers in the air at all times increase survival chances

Question 12

What is dispersal? Pros and Cons?

Answer 12

Spreading out your forces.
* Increase the chances of survivial
* Forces adversary to take measure that will be harder to canceal
* con is increased likelyhood of accidents

a realted issue is decentralization of launch authority

Question 13

What is the strategic triad?

Answer 13

• Bombers (planes)
• ICBMs
• SLBMs (submaries)

This triad is essential for a robust deterrent posture.

Question 14

What is the importance of limited options in deterrence?

Answer 14

Massive retaliation may not have been credible

This relates to the stability-instability paradox.

Question 15

What is the stability-instabiltiy paradox?

Answer 15

As the likleyhood of nuclear war decreases, the likehood of lower level conflicts increases.