how do we know that GHGs are the cause of the rapid warming?
basic physics: more GHG=rise in temp. and rise in temp. is in lockstep with rise in carbon, also “fingerprint” of GHG proving it is human caused.
what is a global climate model?
a program that shows past climates and predicts future ones
what does CMIP stand for?
coupled model intercomparison
what does the CMIP do?
it is an entry model that allows IPCC reports to put in their research with a certain criteria
how does the global climate model (GCM) show data?
it shows means from all models and deviations from means to predict future temperatures
what is the difference between weather and climate models?
weather models are short term, and experience rapid changes. climate models are long term and show decadal averages
what do climate models account for?
what are the limitations of GCMs?
problematic in mountainous regions and coastal areas, clouds impact the models and small scale impacts must be downscaled
what are GCMs best for?
temperature and pressure
how do we project future climates?
using SSPs. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
what are SSPs?
different predictions of how society develops in the future
what is the equation for SSPs?
I=PxAxT
p=population
a=affluence
t=technology
what is the equation for technology?
T=EIxCI
EI= energy intensity (how much energy is used)
CI= carbon intensity
what is related to GHG emissions?
technology
what part of the technology equation is declining due to better energy efficiency?
EI, energy intensity
what is energy dominance?
countries that are reliant on fossil fuels and countries that are reliant on another country that provides the fossil fuels
what will happen to precipitation with increase in temperature?
increase in precipitation due to air holding more water vapor, wet places will get wetter and dry places will get drier
why does a small degree of change matter?
last ice age was only 5-7 degrees different than today, predictions say it is to be 5-7 degrees warmer in the future. this causes massive impacts and land changes
what percent of all species are at risk of extinction?
20-30%
what are the impacts of climate change?
why is an increase in heat bad?
heat waves kill most out of any natural disaster, and this can be worsened in cities due to urban heat island
why does an increase in temp. mean an increase in vector-borne diseases?
warmer temps= more disease carrying mosquitoes and ticks
warmer temps= harbor infectious water-borne bacteria
what does inhospitable areas lead to?
mass migrations, wars over resources, and the link between heat and violence
how does climate change affect mental health?
increase in anxiety and depression from loss of loved ones, possible bad futures, and economic struggles