Clinical judgment:
Reaching a decision by processing information in one’s head
Actuarial judgment:
Reaching a decision without employing subjective human judgment, using empirically-established relations between data and the event of interest
Clinician’s strengths:
- Theory mediated judgment
- Able to detect complex predictive solutions
- Ability to use rare events- current case is an exception to the statistical trend
Clinician’s weaknesses:
- Human influences
- Human judgment
- Motivational
- Cognitive- misled by normal ways of thinking
- Confirmation bias
- Overconfidence
Calibration:
The proportion of times wrong compared to the proportion of times we said we’d be the wrong
Calibration curve:
- Assessing the true proportion of times when the event occurs with a person’s judgment
- Plot the person’s judgment on the X-axis and the proportion on the Y-axis
Avoiding overconfidence:
- Avoid predictions in unfamiliar domains
- Especially if confidence is high, adjust down
- Challenge your own beliefs
DUNDRUM:
Provide support in determining the security on admission
What DUNDRUM-1 measures:
Security triage
predicts drop-out
What DUNDRUM-2 measures:
Urgency of need
What DUNDRUM-3 measures:
Program Completion
What DUNDRUM-4 measures:
Forensic Recovery
What IFTE measures:
Instrument for Forensic Treatment Evaluation
-Progress of treatment- level of functioning, changes
