Formula for EV?
= (Probability of win x profit) + (Probability of loss x amount would lose)
EV for a free bet?
Pwin×(Odds−1)×Stake (for free bets)
Describe positive odds US betting?
+ 200 means that on a $100 bet if won you would make $200 profit
used for underdogs
Describe negative odds US betting?
- 300, you would have to bet $300 to make $100
used for favs
Types of sharp accounts?
- Player prop betting – arbing with unders, player position near kick off
- Table tennis, low confidence sport – flat staking, PM, multying up same player, exclusively table tennis
- Stats bettor – low grade IP singles, less sharp money to form prices
- Fast feeding – feed testing bets, fast settling markets, cash outs
- Alt markets/handicaps – going early PM beating closing
Metrics used to profile accounts?
- Closing values – verify against exchange, time to off
- Cohort type, GBA?
- NLD, data client, was it a racket sport?
- Strength of the sport – stats betting?
- Monte carlo – how does that fit into the bigger picture
- Live trading review, what context could they provide at bet placement, how strong was the reference
- % of max laytolose placed
- Related contingencies
- Casino business – limited visibility at metric
- Datadog
- Bonusing thresholds – expected value
- Multis – are they multiplying value or masking
Bonusing thresholds?
- % of turnover is coupons
- Certain amount of bets completed
- IP address etc.. are live trading team seeing multiple hits on same selection, GBA marker on this
- Expected value on accounts, can we combine this with other metrics to find sweet spot, can be achieved running SQL queries
Roles?
Customer profiling
Detecting trading patterns
Behaviour insights
Pricing dynamics
Sharp betting strategies PM and IP
Questions to ask?
- How does the US team interact with the European
- What would my daily routine look like and how do the hours work
- Are there current plans to move more sportsbooks on European soil – am aware there is one online casino currently available in the netherelands
- What is the biggest sharp issue currently faced by Hard Rock Digital
- What would progression look like within the role
How do you find yourself working at hard rock digital and what is your favourite thing about the role?
Why hard rock?
Strong backing by large franchise - Sponsoring Orlando Magic
Relatively new meaning able to work from ground up and have a big impact
Excited to get more experience on US sports - can provide value with world cup upcoming
I know Sten and Charlie, great individuals at Metric good signs about hard rock digital
Remote setting I have proven i wont require much onboarding and that im a hard worker who reaches out for oppourtunities
American teams in Florida? - important as they have exclusivity here
Dolphins, gators
Miami heat, Orlando Magic
Inter Miami
Hard rock details?
Franchise founded in 1971 (hospitalility, casino, entertainment) - Hard rock digital (sportsbook) branch in 2020, UK office 2023
Igaming side linked with playtech and bragg
Variety of states in US exclusive in Florida
Only presence casino in netherlands
Technical skills?
SQL - table tennis report, created reports when tableau went down, using AI with python workbooks in google colab to clean and analyse data
Sigma/Tableau dashboards
Monte carlo simulations
What I understand about the role so far?
10-6 or 12-8
Basics of role going through reports each day highlighting different accounts/business taken, these will all need to be analysed
When this is complete provides time to do analysis work, improving reports, giving feedback to data science/trading, automating processes
