Formula for EV?
= (Probability of win x profit) + (Probability of loss x amount would lose)
EV for a free bet?
Pwin×(Odds−1)×Stake (for free bets)
Describe positive odds US betting?
+ 200 means that on a $100 bet if won you would make $200 profit
used for underdogs
Convert to decimal by doing Odds/100 + 1
Describe Negative US betting odds?
-300 = you would have to bet $300 to make $100
used for favs
Convert to decimal by doing (100/American odds made positive) + 1
Types of sharp accounts?
Player prop betting – arbing with unders, player position or injuries at lineup release
Table tennis, low confidence sport – flat staking, PM, multying up same player, exclusively table tennis
Stats bettor – low grade IP singles, less sharp money to form prices
Fast feeding – feed testing bets, fast settling markets, cash outs
Alt markets/handicaps – going early PM beating closing
Metrics used to profile accounts?
Closing values – verify against exchange, time to off
Cohort type, GBA?
NLD, data client, was it a racket sport?
Strength of the sport – stats betting?
Monte carlo – how does that fit into the bigger picture
Live trading review, what context could they provide at bet placement, how strong was the reference
% of max laytolose placed
Related contingencies - Single Game Parlays
Casino business – limited visibility at metric
Datadog
Bonusing thresholds – expected value
Multis – are they multiplying value or masking
Explain the structure of NFL?
2 conferences AFC and NFC
These are split into 4 divisions - North, East, South, West
4 teams per division who each play 17 games in the regular season
How do the NFL play offs work?
7 teams from each conference make the playoffs:
4 division winners (best record in each division)
3 wild cards (next best records in the conference)
The #1 seed in each conference (the team with the best record) gets a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Then the playoffs proceed like this:
Wild Card Round
Divisional Round
Conference Championship
Super Bowl – AFC Champion vs NFC Champion
Roles?
Customer profiling
Detecting trading patterns
Behaviour insights
Pricing dynamics
Sharp betting strategies PM and IP
Requirements of the job?
Profiling experience at a sports betting firm - sharp strategies
Understand bonusing strategies
Technical skills - Excel/powerpoint, SQL, tableau/sigma dashboards
Pricing dynamics
US sports
Why hard rock?
Strong backing by large franchise - Sponsoring Orlando Magic
Relatively new meaning able to work from ground up and have a big impact
Excited to get more experience on US sports - can provide value with world cup upcoming
I know Sten, Brad, Charlie, great individuals at Metric good signs about hard rock digital
Remote setting I have proven i wont require much onboarding and that im a hard worker who reaches out for opportunities
What will be difficult about the role for me?
Upscaled massively exclusive in Florida and present throughout the US, larger stakes on US sports
Questions to ask?
What is the biggest sharp issue currently faced by Hard Rock Digital?
Is there much interaction with casino business?
What would progression look like within the role - what are the main characteristics you can display to progress
What would you say makes hard rock stand out from other competitors in the US, and what is your favourite aspect of working here?
Next steps?
Why hard rock?
Strong backing by large franchise - Sponsoring Orlando Magic
Relatively new meaning able to work from ground up and have a big impact
Excited to get more experience on US sports - can provide value with world cup upcoming
I know Sten and Charlie, great individuals at Metric good signs about hard rock digital
Remote setting I have proven i wont require much onboarding and that im a hard worker who reaches out for oppourtunities
American teams in Florida? - important as they have exclusivity here
Miami Dolphins (perfect season 1972), Jacksonville Jaguars, Tampa Bay Buccanears
Miami Heat and Orlando Magic
Florida Gators - College
Inter Miami, Orlando City
Hard rock details?
Franchise founded in 1971 (hospitalility, casino, entertainment) - Hard rock digital (sportsbook) branch in 2020, UK office 2023
Igaming side linked with playtech and bragg, under Seminole Gaming
Available in 9 states, Arizona, Colarado, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennese, Virginia and exclusive in florida
6 retail shops in florida
Only presence casino in netherlands, plans to move to south america (brazil)
Stats on Hard rock digital
HRD may be valued at up to ~$8 billion based on growth and market positioning (April 2025).
At launch, HRI + SGA had a database of over 130 million customers and ~250 venues in 76 countries.
Strategic tech partnership: March 2023 HRD & Playtech. Playtech invested ~$85 million for a minority stake.
reports that HRD’s sportsbook business recorded a GGR of US$881 million in 2024.
Technical skills?
SQL - table tennis report, created reports when tableau went down, using AI with python workbooks in google colab to clean and analyse data
Sigma/Tableau dashboards
Monte carlo simulations
What I understand about the role so far?
10-6 or 12-8
Basics of role going through reports each day highlighting different accounts/business taken, these will all need to be analysed
When this is complete provides time to do analysis work, improving reports, giving feedback to data science/trading, automating processes
Betting strategies myself?
EW Golf value, bet365 2up, acca freeze, contextual keeper card 1-0 from SS, bonusing, bookie bashing
Lucky 15 calc
Implied probability from decimal odds?
1/decimal odds
Super bowl favs
Chiefs - Mahomes, Kelce (tight end), Rashee Rice/Xathier worthy (recievers), Isiah Pacheco (running back)
Buffalo Bills - Josh Allen
Detriot lions - Jared Goff
MVPs?
Mahomes 2.5
Josh Allen 4.5
Baker Mayfield - 10s shorter elsewhere has made big plays for buccanears
Why are Ravens poor this season?
Lamar Jackson injury
