Base Rate Fallacy
Ignoring general probability data.
Law of Small Numbers
Assuming small samples are representative.
Gambler’s Fallacy
Believing random events influence future outcomes.
Hot Hand Fallacy
Believing success continues due to momentum.
Regression to the Mean
Misinterpreting natural variation as trends.
Survivorship Bias
Focusing on visible successes while ignoring failures.
Sampling Bias
Drawing conclusions from non-representative samples.
Selection Bias
Distortion caused by how data is selected.
Observer Bias
Measurement influenced by expectations.
Measurement Bias
Error introduced by flawed measurement methods.
Clustering Illusion
Seeing patterns in random data.
Risk Compensation
Taking greater risks when perceived safety increases.
Zero-Risk Bias
Preferring elimination of small risks over larger reductions.
Denominator Neglect
Ignoring relative proportions.
Misleading Averages
Relying on averages that hide variability.
Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
Defining patterns after results are known.
Prosecutor’s Fallacy
Confusing conditional probabilities.
