Talking structure
1) “Based on the Heads of Terms, the client is a PLC. Because of that I have assumed the client’s priorities are managing [Y fear]. Would you agree? Before I dive into the risks, may I clarify if this is a debt-financed or all-cash deal? In my written task I’ve assumed the deal might involve debt, as that’s common for PLCs, but I want to make sure my analysis of the risks aligns with the clients repayment obligations, so I’m happy to look at it from a cash all in perspective if that is better suited for the client?
→ i) PLC fears shareholder scrutiny and volatility in stock price as a share price collapse can lead to a hostile take over, posing a threat of loss of control.
→ ii) LTD fears over-leveraging and personal liability of directors.
→ iii) Debt Financed
buyers fears breaching bank covenants and failing to meet interest payments.
→ iv) Private Equity fears losing their investors’ capital (Financial) and missing the “Internal Rate of Return” (IRR) target for exit.
→ v) Multinational business fears the front page of the Financial Times (Reputation) and multi-jurisdictional tax/legal complexity.
→ vi) Financial Institution fears “Systemic Risk” and strict regulatory oversight (e.g., anti-money laundering/compliance).
→ vii) Government Backed Entity fears Security of Supply” and political fallout if the resource is lost.
→ viii) Mid-size/ First time entry fears “Deal Execution” risk—they don’t have the spare capital to survive a failed acquisition.
2a)Based on that, I have prioritised 3 key risks, specifically because these risks threaten your objective of [Commercial Aim] (FORRCE):
→ If DEBT FINANCED (order is: overstated reserves and resources, defective title.permits, environmental, closure, esg liability): My first priority risk is Overstated Reserves and Recourses. This is because In a debt-funded deal, the bank’s lending model is based on EBITDA. If the ore grade is lower than the Sellers claimed, the mine produces less revenue and the mines EBITDA drops. This leads to a Covenant Breach, where the bank can technically take control of the PLC or demand immediate repayment, causing a share price collapse. This is particularly a problem as PLC is acquiring a LTD and LTDs often have less rigorous, non-public reporting standards than PLCs. There is a higher risk that their geological data hasn’t been “vetted” by the market.
→ If ALL IN CASH (order is now: environmental closure esg liability, defective title/ permits, overstated reserves and resources): The buyer plc is not worried about a covenant breach; they are worried about Reputational Contagion and NAV (Net Asset Value) Destruction. So My first priority risk is Environmental/ESG Liability. This is because the buyer plc cares about the buyer plc’s global share price. If the buyer plc buys a mine with a legacy of human rights abuses or toxic leaks, institutional investors (who have strict ESG mandates) will dump the PLC’s stock. This leads to the share price collapse and hostile takeover risk your friend mentioned. Environmental, closure and ESG liability is a “tail risk” that can kill the parent company’s reputation, far exceeding the value of the mine itself.
2b) additional risks:
→ i) Regulatory risks because — key permits may not transfer automatically, which could delay operations post-closing.
→ ii) Operational risks because— there is uncertainty around reserve estimates, which affects valuation and production forecasts.
→ iii) Environmental risks because — potential remediation liabilities could transfer with the asset depending on structure.
→ iv)Commercial risks because — some supply contracts may contain change-of-control clauses, creating revenue risk.
→ v) Financial risks because — the mine may require additional capex (machinery/drilling) not reflected in EBITDA disclosures.
→ vi) Reputational risks because —
Based on the information you’ve shared, these appear to be the key risks. Before I advise on structuring options, could you confirm whether these align with your main concerns?”
2c) If they interrupt, answer and ask: “Would you like me to explain how we can mitigate this [specific risk] or shall I finish the risk overview?”
3)Buyer’s 6 options linking the risk directly to the solutions:
“Now that we’ve identified the risks, I have several structural options. To narrow these down, what is the client’s risk appetite for this asset, and is there a ‘hard’ commercial objective—like a specific exit date—that I should prioritize? Okay thank you. The client has have several options, The market standard for mitigating X is (SCDRAW):
→ a) Strengthen protections in the SPA (caps, indemnities for specific risks, liability allocation, conditions precedent, capping the buyer’s liability, warranties etc)
→ b) Change the deal structure: i)from share purchase to asset purchase OR ii)putting the mine in a new subsidiary SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle - A subsidiary company created solely to hold one specific asset or project)
→ c) Delay signing pending further diligence (in mining, delay is a strategic choice only. You pause the deal so you can verify a high-risk area before committing. when something is unclear. E.g: i) you hire geologists to re-check reserve estimates, ii)you ask external experts to confirm environmental liabilities, iii)you obtain regulator feedback before signing. Delaying signing prevents the buyer from being locked into obligations or pricing that no longer reflect the true value of the asset. So the client delays signing ONLY where uncertainty exposes them to unacceptable baseline risk.
→ d) adjust deal timetable
→ e) Renegotiate purchase price,
→ f) Walk away
4) “Balancing the risks against your commercial objectives and risk appetite:
→ If LOW RISK APPETITE - Push for Asset Sale, heavy Indemnities, and large Escrows, many spa protections. High willingness to walk away.
→ If MEDIUM RISK APPETITE - push for targeted conditions precedent, price adjustments, delay only if needed, they will rarely walk away so just push for moderate of everything else.
→ If HIGH RISK APPETITE - light protections in spa only, only small price adjustments, avoid conditions precedent, focus on speed, accept W&I Insurance to bridge gaps, delay, deal structure change, and never walk away from the deal.
5) Give your recommendation:
→ “My recommendation is we proceed with protections — tightening warranties, making the mining license a Condition Precedent, and moving to a Tonnage-based Earn-out with an Escrow to cover the litigation( if seller/target is ltd- Since we are buying from a Private LTD, we face a ‘credit risk’ if we need to claim on an indemnity later—the individuals might have already spent the money. Therefore, I would push for an Escrow/Holdback of 10% of the price. This ensures the funds are actually available if we find a title or environmental issue after the founders have exited.”). This gives the client control, mitigates exposure, and keeps the deal on timetable.”
→ If they say "YES, it's Debt-Financed": “My recommendation is to proceed with a Locked Box mechanism to ensure price certainty for your lenders. Given the debt, I would make the Mining Permits a Condition Precedent and include a Specific Indemnity for any undisclosed CapEx. This ensures your Free Cash Flow is protected so you can meet your bank covenants without interruption.” I would also ensure the SPA is inter-conditional with your financing, so you aren't legally forced to close the deal if your lenders fail to fund the acquisition. → If they say "NO, it's All-Cash": “Since this is a cash acquisition, we have more flexibility. I recommend an Asset Purchase structure to 'cherry-pick' the best reserves and leave legacy liabilities behind. I would prioritize a Retention/Escrow for environmental risks rather than speed, ensuring we maximize the Net Asset Value without the pressure of immediate debt servicing.”
STEP 1: TYPE OF COMPANY INFLUENCING PRIORITY RISKS
If the buyer is a PLC?
A PLC’s capital is provided by public shareholders so PLC’s have alot of cash available but also have High Accountability as they are funded by public shareholders. The commercial aim of a PLC is Stable Earnings Per Share (EPS - a company consistently generates a predictable amount of profit for each outstanding share, indicating reliable profitability and potentially lower risk, making it attractive for long-term investors) and Dividends (a sum of money paid regularly by a company to its shareholders out of its profits). PLC’s need to keep shareholders happy with consistent, predictable growth.
The priority risk for a PLC is Reputational/ESG Risk. A PLC is vulnerable to share-price crashes/ share-price volatility if a scandal (like a tailings dam failure or human rights dispute) hits the news. This risks a share price collapse and potential hostile takeover. The focus for PLCs therefore is on Reputation and maintaining a stable Earnings Per Share (EBITDA).
STEP 1: TYPE OF COMPANY INFLUENCING PRIORITY RISKS
If the buyer is a LTD?
The commercial aim of a LTD is long-term value/wealth preservation. They care about the legacy and the long-term health of the asset over decades.
As a Private LTD company, the directors often have personal exposure, so they may have a medium risk appetite. The priority risk for LTD is financial contagion. They want to ensure that if the mine has a disaster, the “mother company” or the founders’ other assets are legally protected from being sued.
I recommend Strengthening the SPA with very clear ‘Liability Caps’ to ensure that even in a worst-case scenario, the parent company’s other assets are protected from the mine’s liabilities.”
STEP 1: TYPE OF COMPANY INFLUENCING PRIORITY RISKS
If the buyer is debt financed?
The commercial aim of a Debt Financed buyer is Leveraged Returns. They are using “Other People’s Money” to multiply their own profits, so they need the mine to be ‘accretive’ (profitable) from Day 1 to satisfy your lenders.
The priority risk for a Debt Financed buyer is Interest Rate/Volatility Risk and commercial risk. If the price of the metal drops, their revenue drops, but their debt payments stay the same. They are hypersensitive to Commodity Price Chaos.
I recommend to prioritize the Financial Risk of undisclosed CapEx. If the mine needs new machinery immediately, that cash cannot go toward your interest payments. I suggest an Equity Value bridge that deducts all existing debt and immediate repair costs from the purchase price.”
The Ls Solution: You push for Inter-conditionality. If the bank pulls the funding because of a title defect, the Buyer isn’t forced to close the deal with their own cash. You are “linking” the SPA to the Credit Agreement.
STEP 1: TYPE OF COMPANY INFLUENCING PRIORITY RISKS
If the buyer is finances the deal through all cash in?
If ALL IN CASH, priority order is now: i)environmental closure esg liability, ii)defective title/ permits, iii)overstated reserves and resources). This is because the buyer plc is not worried about a covenant breach; their commercial objectives are focused more towards long-term asset quality and market positioning. Since they aren’t answering to a bank, they are answering directly to their Shareholders and Institutional Investors so PLC all cash in buyers care about limiting Reputational Contagion and NAV (Net Asset Value) Destruction.
i)So my first priority risk is Environmental/ESG Liability. This is because the buyer plc cares about the buyer plc’s global share price. Large PLCs are often part of ESG-indexed funds. If the buyer plc buys all cash in, a mine ltd with a legacy of human rights abuses or toxic leaks, institutional investors (who have strict ESG mandates) will dump the PLC’s stock. . This leads to a write-down on the balance sheet, which causes the share price collapse, making the PLC vulnerable to a hostile takeover. Environmental, closure and ESG liability is a “tail risk” that can kill the parent company’s reputation as when a PLC buys an LTD, they are adding that LTD’s NAV to their own balance sheet, far exceeding the value of the mine itself.
ii) My second priority is Defective Title/ Permits. This is because if the client spends hundreds of millions in shareholder cash on a mine and it turns out the Mining License is invalid and thus the buyer does not actually own it, the buyer will have “incinerated” shareholder capital, committing a massive failure in “Capital Allocation. This is a direct hit to the NAV (total assets minus total liabilities) because if the client does not own the license, the “Asset” value is essentially zero. Shareholders will see a massive write-down on the balance sheet, which signals incompetent management and invites activist investors to take over the board.
iii)My third priority is Overstated Reserves and Resources). If there is less gold than thought, the “Asset” value drops which can lower NAV. This is a Valuation rather than a survival issue. Since there is no debt to service, the PLC can afford to play the “long game.” They can use their cash to improve the mine’s technology or wait for commodity prices to rise. It’s a “bad deal,” but it won’t necessarily trigger a crisis on Day 1.
The Ls Solution: You push for an Asset Purchase. By buying just the “gear and the ground” (the asset) rather than the “company” (the LTD shares), you leave the legacy environmental liabilities behind with the Seller. You “ring-fence” the client’s reputation.
STEP 1: TYPE OF COMPANY INFLUENCING PRIORITY RISKS
If the buyer is a Private Equity?
The commercial aim of a Private Equity is a high Internal Rate of Return (IRR). They want to buy the mine, optimize it, and sell it for a significant profit within 3–5 years.
The priority risk for Private Equity is Financial/Cash Flow Risk. Because they are almost certainly Debt Financed and PE firms use a “Leveraged Buyout” (LBO) model where they borrow ~50-70% of the purchase price, they cannot afford “hidden” costs (like sudden machinery failure) that eat into the cash needed to pay interest.
Priority solution will be Free Cash Flow certainty to ensure the PE can service the debt. I recommend a Tonnage-based Earn-out to protect your margins from commodity price swings, as a drop in profit could lead to a breach of your bank covenants.
STEP 1: TYPE OF COMPANY INFLUENCING PRIORITY RISKS
If the buyer is a Multinational Buisness?
The commercial aim of a Multinational Business is Global Diversification. They want to own assets in different countries to ensure they aren’t wiped out if one country’s economy or government fails. They have deep pockets/ lots of cash but face extreme Reputational and Jurisdictional risk.
The priority risk for Multinational Business is Regulatory Risk and reputational risk from environemental closure and esg liability. Their biggest fear is “Resource Nationalism”—a foreign government changing the law to seize the mine or cancel their permits after they’ve spent millions building it. Multinationals also cannot afford a scandal in one region that affects your global ‘social license to operate. I have prioritized Regulatory and Environmental risks above all else. I suggest Delaying Signing until we have obtained written confirmation from the local regulators that all mining permits are valid and transferable.
STEP 1: TYPE OF COMPANY INFLUENCING PRIORITY RISKS
If the buyer is a Financial Institution?
The commercial aim of a Financial Institution is Risk-Adjusted Yield. They often act as a passive partner or financier looking for a steady “coupon” or return on their investment.
The priority risk for Financial Institution is Regulatory Compliance/Sanctions Risk. They are heavily regulated as they face strict ‘Know Your Customer’ (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) scrutiny. Their priority is ensuring the seller isn’t a “Sanctioned Person” and that the mining license wasn’t obtained through bribery (Anti-Bribery and Corruption/ABC).
To help this, my recommendation is on Commercial and Regulatory due diligence to ensure the Seller’s source of wealth is legitimate and that the mine’s supply contracts are ‘arms-length.’ I recommend robust Warranties and Indemnities backed by a long-term Escrow.”
STEP 1: TYPE OF COMPANY INFLUENCING PRIORITY RISKS
If the buyer is a Government Backed Entity?
Government Backed Entities have “Infinite” or “Cheap” capital. They aren’t worried about interest rates; they are worried about Policy. The commercial aim of a Government Backed Entity is Security of Supply. They aren’t looking for a quick profit; they need the physical commodity to fuel their home country’s manufacturing or power grid.
The priority risk for Governmental Backed Entity is Operational/Production Risk. Their priority is “Tonnage.” If the mine’s reserves are smaller than reported or the machinery breaks down, the “supply chain” for their country is broken. So focus on Security of Supply (Physical Tonnage) and Regulatory stability.
I recommend focusing on Physical Tonnage Milestones rather than EBITDA, and using Conditions Precedent to ensure the mine’s infrastructure is fully operational before the funds are released.”
STEP 1: TYPE OF COMPANY INFLUENCING PRIORITY RISKS
If the buyer is a Mid-Size / First Time Company?
The commercial aim of a Mid-Size / First Time Company is Growth/Scale. This acquisition is likely their “make or break” move to become a major player in the industry.
The priority risk for a Mid-Size / First Time Company is Liquidity/Survival Risk. They lack the “deep pockets” of a giant and are Capital Constrained. Unlike a global giant, you do not have the cash reserves to absorb a ‘hidden’ environmental fine or a massive CapEx spike. You have a Low Risk Appetite. They likely have one shot at this and are using their own hard-earned cash or a strict bank loan. One major lawsuit or a period of low commodity prices could bankrupt the entire company. Focus on Risk Mitigation (Escrows for atleast 2 years, Renegotiating the Price and Indemnities) because a single lawsuit could bankrupt them.
STEP 2: RISKS:
what are all the issues that could derail the deal for the buyer?
1) Defective Title / Permits
2) Environmental & Closure/ ESG Liability
3) Reserves / Business Fundamentals Overstated
4)Key Contracts (offtake, PPAs, major customers/ suppliers/ Offtake / Revenue Certainty Risk)
5) Regulatory / Governmental Approvals
6) Political / Resource Nationalism
7) Debt & Change of Control/ Financing Risk
8) Working Capital & Operational Liquidity
9) Key People / Founders / Management
10) Change of Commodity Prices (Valuation risk)
11) Infrastructure Dependency Risk
DERRIKKDWPC
what kind of environment is the mining m&a sector in general?
extremely volatile, unpredictable, rapidly changing
Why did you choose these key issues (defective title/permits, environmental closing and ESG liability, and resources and reserves overstated) as your top 3 priorities?
I prioritised these issues because they go to whether the asset can be operated and valued as presented. Permit and title risk and environmental liabilities are binary in nature — if they crystallise, the deal fails regardless of price. Reserve overstatement is commercially critical because it underpins valuation and financing. Together, they determine whether the transaction works at all, rather than how well it works.
when they ask you “What would the client think about your proposed solutions?”, what will you relate your answer to?
The clients
STEP 3a: Strengthening Protections in SPA
If the issue for a buyer is Defective Title / Permits (Does the seller actually own the mine, and is the license still valid?), what in the case study extract may give the impression that this is a top 3 priority, that you can link your answer too?
Look for “administrative” or “political” red flags:
→i)”Pending Renewal”: If the mining license expires in 2 years, the buyer is at the mercy of the government for a renewal.
→ii)”Indigenization / Local Content Requirements”: Clues that the government might demand 10–20% of the shares for free.
→iii) If there is a Change of Government,
→iv)”Ministerial Discretion”: If the transfer requires a specific politician’s signature, it creates a massive “Execution Risk” (bribery or delay).
→v) If the local community is suing for land rights, it is better to put it in the Defective Title section: “The pending litigation regarding land rights not only threatens our legal title to the asset but also creates a significant ESG risk by jeopardizing our Social License to Operate. This dual-threat necessitates a specific indemnity and a CP for settlement before closing.”. Then when you get to the Issue 3 which is ESG, say this so that there isnt an overlap in the points you make: “As mentioned in Issue 2, the community litigation creates a reputational risk. Beyond the legal title impact, this also risks institutional divestment if the PLC is seen to be ignoring indigenous or local rights…”
STEP 3a: Strengthening Protections in SPA
If the issue for a buyer is Defective Title / Permits (Does the seller actually own the mine, and is the license still valid?), what risk would hidden liabilities expose the buyer to?
Buyer could pay for an asset it cannot legally operate.
In mining specifically, ‘the mining licence (right to extract minerals)’, ‘land title’ and ‘surface subsurface rights’ are the most important assets.
If these are invalid, non- transferable, under challenge, or easily revoked, the buyer could face
a) not being able to mine,
b) the project becomes stranded,
c)the entire purchase price becomes worthless,
d)reputational damage,
e) government shutdowns,
f)fines, AND
g)community disputes.
This is one of the biggest issue that could DERAIL the deal in mining.
STEP 3a: Strengthening Protections in SPA
You’ve identified permit and title risk as a deal-breaker. Why is this not something we simply deal with through warranties and indemnities?
In mining transactions, permits and title are not ancillary assets — they are the asset itself. Without valid and transferable licences and subsurface rights, the buyer client would acquire a project it is legally unable to operate, resulting in a stranded asset and a total loss of value.
This is why warranties and indemnities are insufficient here. They compensate after the event but do not prevent AtlasBank from acquiring a non-operational asset, nor do they address regulatory and reputational exposure in an emerging market.
For the client with a stated objective of avoiding ESG and regulatory risk, that exposure is inconsistent with proceeding. The risk therefore needs to be addressed pre-completion through conditions precedent confirming permit validity and transferability, supported by targeted indemnities for pre-completion defects.
STEP 3a: Strengthening Protections in SPA
If the issue for a buyer is Defective Title / Permits, what main protection should I recommend to the buyer client?
Our aim is to secure absolute certainty of title/ permits and regulatory compliance for the long term. This can be done by:
1)unqualified title warranties confirming the seller owns all necessary rights (mineral and surface) AND
2) permit warranties confirming that all required permits (mining, water use, environmental discharge, labor) are in good standing and transferable, AND
3)Conditions Precedent requiring that legal opinions from credible independent counsel confirming that the mining licence is a)valid, b)properly granted, c)fully paid, d)transferable, e)all necessary governmental and third-party consents, f) No outstanding government disputes and g) not currently under challenge.
4) MAC clause that buyer has a right to terminate or renegotiate if any licences/ permits becomes suspended, challenged, non-transferable, or materially worsened. AND
5) Demand a full indemnity for any losses arising from a defect in title, defective liscence, or pre-closing breaches of permit conditions occurring before completion. This is because warranties are often capped or subject to materiality thresholds, and only indemnities give pound-for-pound protection. This allows the seller to retain the risk.
STEP 3a: Strengthening Protections in SPA
Where the issue for a buyer is Defective title / permits, why does the protection of Unqualified title/permit warranties + CPs matter?
This protection matters because it will:
1)Confirm the seller actually owns what the buyer thinks they are buying
2) Give the buyer a clear damages claim if rights are defective
3) Allow the buyer to walk away pre-completion
4) Protect the buyer against if the community files a legal challenge
5) if the government refuses transfer
6)In mining, the licence is the business. A MAC clause tied specifically to the licence permits the buyer to walk away if the regulatory landscape deteriorates between signing and completion. Without it, the buyer could be forced to buy a stranded or non-operational asset.
7)Aligns with the client’s risk appetite, especially if the buyer is a PLC or sensitive to ESG/sovereign risk.
ASK CHAT GPT THIS FLASHCARD PLEASE.
STEP 3a: Strengthening Protections in SPA
Where the issue for a buyer is Defective title / permits, how does why this protection matter change depending on who the buyer client is?
PLC
→ Regulatory Compliance. Public investors demand certainty that the “Right to Operate” is indisputable. PLC’s fear that they can’t report the asset on their Balance Sheet, which confuses public investors.
LTD
→
Debt Financed
→ The Fear: Impacts Bankability.They can’t use the mine as Collateral for their loans. No title = No debt funding.
Private Equity
→ NUMBER 1 PRIORITY RISK - Impacts Bankability. PE firms need to use the mine as “collateral” to borrow money. If the title is defective, no bank will lend them the cash for the deal.
Multinational Business
→ NUMBER 1 PRIORITY RISK - Global Compliance: Their internal risk committees will not sanction a “corrupt” or “unclear” title in any jurisdiction. As a Multinational, Defective Title is your primary risk. If title is challenged, you may have to ‘write down’ the asset value on your global balance sheet. This negatively impacts your ROCE, making this acquisition look like a failure to your board of directors and global stakeholders.
Financial Institution
→NUMBER 1 PRIORITY RISK - Fiduciary Duty: They are risk-averse. They cannot hold an asset with “legal leakage” or ownership uncertainty. Any ownership uncertainty increases the ‘risk-weighting’ of the asset under your Capital Adequacy requirements. This lowers your Risk-Adjusted Yield, making the investment inefficient compared to safer assets.”
Government Backed Entity
→ The reasoning is National Security/Supply. If the title is defective, they lose the physical minerals their country needs for its power grid.
Mid-size/First Time Company
→ A title defect is a “binary” risk that could wipe out their only major investment. This would create Total Deal Failure.
STEP 3a: Strengthening Protections in SPA
Where the issue for a buyer is Defective title / permits and the main protection is Unqualified title/permit warranties + CPs, what additional protections can we put in place to strengthen the main protection and further protect the buyer?
1) Tighten warranty drafting: Remove knowledge qualifiers, and add a materiality scrape so seller cannot minimise breaches.
2) CPs tailored to regulatory and political risk including host government approval
3) To ensure the buyer doesn’t overpay for a risky asset, if license transferability is uncertain, push for: i)purchase price adjustment, ii)larger escrow,
iii)deferred consideration
iv)or even walk away
4) USE THIS ONLY IF THE CASE STUDY IS OVERSEAS OR TAKES PLACE IN AN EMERGING MARKET OR DRC, CHILE, PERU, GUINEA, INDONESIA, MONGOLIA. DO NOT USE IF CASE STUDY IS UK ONLY: As mining is often in unstable countries (Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, Developing jurisdictions), these countries often have weak court systems, corruption, slow judiciary, political interference or unpredictable enforcement. So if something goes wrong, like a government revoking a mining licence, it is not in the best interest for the buyer to rely on these unstable countries’ courts to resolve the dispute fairly. Thus, given the political and regulatory risk in this jurisdiction, I recommend pushing for a clause in the SPA saying that any disputes are to be resolved through arbitration in a neutral venue, for example, using an independent internationally recognised body such as the ICC or LCIA arbitration. The ICC or LCIA are well-established organisations that give both sides a fair, enforceable decision. It protects you from having to rely on the local courts, which can be unpredictable, slow, or subject to political pressure. Arbitration gives neutrality, confidentiality, specialist decision-makers, and a clearer route to enforcement. To further protect themselves, even if the buyer client wins an arbitration award, the host government might refuse to pay, seize assets, block enforcement or nationalise the mine. So as a buyer it would be best to consider Political Risk Insurance to cover expropriation or regulatory interference.
STEP 3a: Strengthening Protections in SPA
What if the seller refuses conditions precedent on permit transferability and offers a price reduction instead — would that solve the problem?
A price reduction would not, on its own, solve the issue. Permit transferability is a binary risk — either AtlasBank can legally operate the mine or it cannot. No level of price adjustment compensates for acquiring a non-operational or potentially unlawful asset.
That said, if the seller is resistant to a hard condition precedent, a more workable compromise would be to retain transferability as a completion condition but limit it to objectively verifiable matters — for example, confirmation from the regulator that the permits are valid and capable of transfer — rather than relying on knowledge qualifiers.
Absent that, AtlasBank would be assuming regulatory and reputational risk that is inconsistent with proceeding, particularly given its status as a regulated bank operating in an emerging market.”
STEP 3a: Strengthening Protections in SPA
From the seller’s perspective, why would they agree to a condition precedent on permit transferability at all? What’s in it for them?
“From the seller’s perspective, agreeing to a condition precedent on permit transferability can actually increase deal certainty rather than reduce it. Permit issues are binary and highly visible risks; addressing them pre-completion avoids the risk of post-completion disputes, indemnity claims, or price adjustments that could delay or undermine a clean exit.
In addition, a seller — particularly one backed by private equity — is typically focused on execution certainty and timing. A narrowly drafted CP tied to objective regulatory confirmation can accelerate buyer sign-off, support financing, and reduce the risk of the deal collapsing later in the process.
Where the seller is confident in its permitting position, a CP allows it to demonstrate asset quality and justify valuation, rather than leaving the buyer to price in uncertainty.”
STEP 3a: Strengthening Protections in SPA
ASK IN INTERVIEW: is the client willing to accept some sovereign / regulatory risk as part of the strategy, or do they want these risks mostly pushed back onto the seller or priced into a lower valuation?
a) If client is not willing to accept the sovereign/regulatory risk, push hard for the protections.
b) If client is willing to accept the sovereign/regulatory risk, then only push for the material ones and add tools that help the buyer absorb risk including: i) Insurance (PRI), ii)Local counsel deep dive, iii)Strengthening community relations & ESG, iv)Joint venture structure to share risk, v)Parent guarantees