Reasoning
Levering incomplete information about the world in order to draw further conclusions.
Decision Making
Choosing a specific course of behavioural actions among multiple possibilities.
Expected Utility Hypotheses (EUT)
When people are faced with multiple options, they will choose the one that returns the highest likely value
Neuroeconomics
Economic Theory, Neuroscience, Psychology
Propositions
Any statement that can be true or false and can refer to properties of the external world.
Premises
A set of beliefs: estimates about whether certain possible facts about the world are true.
How do you draw conclusions?
From proposition & premises. Decision based on the available information.
Deduction
The conclusion follows logically from the initial premise.
Syllogism
Reasoning in which a conclusion is derived from 2+ propositional statements.
Categorical Syllogism
Consists of 3 statements: 2 premises and 1 conclusion
As long as both premises are true, the conclusion will also be true.
Categorical Example
All animals eat food, a rabbit is an animal, therefore rabbits eat food.
Belief Bias
The tendency to rate more believable conclusions are more valid. Decreased with unlimited time to consider.
Atmospheric Effect
People rate a conclusion as valid as long as the qualifying word (all, some) in the premise match those in the conclusion.
Mental Models
People construct mental simulations of the world in their minds based on syllogisms.
Conditional or Hypothetical Syllogism
Uses Antecedent & Consequent.
Modus Ponens
Affirming the Antecedent
If Ant is tru, we can conclude that the consequent is true.
Modus Tollens
Denying the Consequent
Observing the consequent to be false and concluding the ant to be fake.
Induction
Going beyond available data to make more general assumptions.
Generalization
Extrapolating from a limited number of observations to draw a conclusion about a broader population or category. (Most people have cell phones, everyone must have a cell phone)
Statistical Syllogism
Going from observations about a group to inferences about an individual. ( most have, steve must have)
Argument From Analogy
Observing two things share on property and assuming they share another property. (We are both jewish, we must both be liberal)
One-Shot Learning
When a concept is learned from a single example.
Heuristics
Mental short-cuts that goes straight to inference.
Slow Reasoning
Serial logical analysis of information.