Great divergence
- economic and industrial split of Europe from rest of the world
- began in 15th century and maximised in 19th century
Why was Europe believed to be fundamentally different?
- more rational and innovative
- stronger property rights, capitalism, institutions
- favourable demographics and enviornment:
> walkable
> access to maritime coastline
> rivers - intergrated market for ideas
how was the European corporate society being fostered
- pluralism
- innovation
- rule of law
- universaties and academics pushed science and knowledge accumulation
- joint-stock companies, deep financial markets, capitalist production
what did political fragmentation mean for European society?
- freedom from censorship
-> thinkers could be relocated when repressed, ideas could be published elsewhere undermining monopolies of thought - competing politics competed for talent > productive competition despite costs
- cultural and intellectual unity (classic heritage, Latin and Christian Church) > work had continent wide audience
- scholars moved frequently: Republic of Letter set norms for open, competitive sciences
Great convergence
- the return of Asia (esp. China and India) towards historical economic weight; closing the gap to the West since the late 20th century
- from years 1-1820 China and India were the largets economies
how did the West “wake up” Asia
- adoption of market principles > productivity gains
- shift to entrepreneurship
- better public policy (eg. Healthcare and education)
Asias transition
- Chinese WTO entry 2001 (brought 900m workers into global market)
- extreme poverty reduction
- Chinas bottom 50% income rose through effective public governance programms
- global supply chains and offshoring Western dominance in manufacturing
- expansion of literacy, tehnical training
- macroeconomic stabilisation
- large, young workforces = sustained labour intensive growth
- todays global share of GDP is 40% (rose from about 20% in 1980) > within country inequality rose but between country inequality narrowed
why did the west lag?
- saw themselves as “winners” of cold war > complacency (confidence meant no rush to get ahead or progress)
- 9/11 distraction right when China joined WTO
- Globalisation moved manufacturing to low-wage countries > industry needed different skills > governements underinvested into training these workers
todays continued disparities
- tech frontier stays in West
- middle income trap threatens economies to shift into innovation
- institutional quality, education, innovation system still varies
what are the implications of the great convergence?
- western-led institutions like IMF, WorldBank face sovereignty and legitimacy challenges > rise of China and India creates multipolarity
- more cooperation needed within East/West divides
- global power shifts towards Asia > erosion of Western dominance
explain the case of EU expansion
recent potential enlargement: Ukraine, Moldova, Western Balkans
> bring up debates about EU absorption capacity
- ability to take on new members without undermining its function
PROs EU Expansion
- geopolitical stability by countering Russian influence
- stronger defenses
- promotion of democracy
- economic growth (new markets = resource and human capital > long term prosperity)
- historical continuity (unifying post-Cold war Europe and consolidating peace)
- Reinforce EU strategic autonomy from US (framework is a shield against aggressions without losing autonomy > help buffer members from great power influence)
CONs EU expansion
- institutional strain
-> more members = slow down governance, complicate decisionmaking, risk more vetos
-> treaty reform = political sensitive - financial burden (poorer, larger states can overwhelm budget)
- policy compatibility (long transtitional periods due to differences in economic structures and governance)
- public resistance
- Uneven commitment
- current security conflicts (live disputes > complicate accession timing and design)
- Russian reactions
-> escalating militarisation
-> economic weaponisation (controlling energy supplies, trade routes)
-> risk of escalation
-> exploitation of unresloved conflicts
-> absorbing occupied territories (eg. Transnistria) through legal, economic and military control (punishing EU oriented states, and undermining sovereignty)
Case of Moldova background
- during 2025 parliamentary elections, moved from candidate status to prepping for first round of negotiations with brussels
- for russia: harder to coerce and destabilise
money that Kremlin put into Moldovan elections
estimated $200m
- pro Kremlin networks to distort democratic processes
- financial flows grow alongside refined tactics > aimed at fracturing pro-European majority and discrediting institutions
Russian manipulation of narratives
disinformation spread by political entrepreneurs, NGOs, clergy, media influencers over TikTok Telegram, proxy media
- fake leads, deepfakes, manipulated pollls
- vote splitting weakens pro-EU bloc
narrative themes of Russians
- Europe is a threat to Orthodoxy and traditional values
- neutrality = peace and cooperation with NATO = warmongering
- economic hardships are occuring because the EU is exploitative
- Russia = cheap gas and stability
- EU intergration is imperialism and reforms are foreign dictates that will deligtimise Moldovan institutions
why Moldova
- Europes poorest country
- lacks strategic depth and serious army
- states military neutrality in Constitution
- already hosts about 1500 Russian troops in Transnistria
- small region in Moldova (Gagauzia) is convinient entry point for Moscow due to influence over local proxies
> even if Russia doesnt get sweeping vicotry in preventing Moldova from joining EU, any foothold legilsature is enough to stall reforms, undermine justices, block energy diversification, etc.
election outcome
- pro-European PAS won just over 50% of votes (low voter turnout)
- pro Russian Patriotic Bloc gained under 25%
- public resistance to economic hardship and propaganda following invasion of Ukraine
- reassuring message to EU, sustaining democratic and pro-European support (can withstand external destabilisation)
