Decision Making
the process of developing a commitment to some course of action.2 Three things are noteworthy about this definition
Problem
a gap is perceived between some existing state and some desired state
Well-Structured Problems
the existing state is clear, the desired state is clear, and how to get from one state to the other is fairly obvious
Program
a standardized way of solving a problem
Ill-Structured Problems
the existing and desired states are unclear and the method of getting to the desired state (even if clarified) is unknown
Rational Decision-making process
1.Idenity Problem
2. Search for Relevant Information
3. Develop Alternative Solutions to the Problem
4. Evaluate Alternative Solutions
5. Choose best alternative
6. Implement Chosen Solution
7. Monitor and Evaluate Chosen solution
Perfect Rationality
Can gather information about problems and solutions without cost and is thus completely informed.
Is perfectly logical
Has only one criterion for decision making: economic gain.
Bounded Rationality
they try to act rationally, but they are limited in their capacity to acquire and process information
Framing
aspects of the presentation of information about a problem that are assumed by decision makers
Cognitive Biases
tendencies to acquire and process information in a particular way that is prone to error.
Problem Identification and Framing
Perpetual defense
Problem defined in terms of functional specialty
Problem defined in terms of solution
Problem diagnosed in terms of symptoms
Information Search: what happens when we have too little information
Availability bias
Confirmation bias
Not-inverted-here bias
Availability bias
we favour information that can be accessed quickly and easily, and we thus tend to remember vivid recent events
Confirmation bias
the tendency to seek out information that conforms to one’s own definition of or solution to a problem
Not-invented-here bias
the tendency to ignore or harbour negative attitudes toward ideas from outside one’s own organization or project team.
Too Much Information
Information Overload: reception of more information than is necessary to make effective decisions
Maximation
can choose the alternative with the greatest expected value
Anchoring effect
decision makers do not adjust their estimates enough from some initial estimate that serves as an (often irrelevant) anchor
Satisficing
decision maker establishes an adequate level of acceptability for a solution and then screens solutions until one is found that exceeds this level
Risk Cultures
a common understanding of how much risk is tolerated and how risk is framed in terms of potential for gain and loss.
Sunk costs
permanent losses of resources incurred as the result of a decision
Escalation of commitment
escalation involves devoting more and more resources to actions implied by the decision
Hindsight
tendency to review the decision-making process that was used to find out what was done right (in the case of success) or wrong (in the case of failure)
Decision Quality (Whether to use groups or not)
Groups are more vigilant than individuals are—more people are scanning the environment.
Groups can generate more ideas than individuals can.
Due to checks and balances, groups can evaluate ideas better than individuals can.