27 Flashcards

(61 cards)

1
Q

According to Al Brooks, what kind of pattern is every Head and Shoulders pattern?

A

It is a major trend reversal.

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2
Q

Why are not all major trend reversals considered Head and Shoulders patterns?

A

Because not all major trend reversals have a left shoulder.

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3
Q

Most Head and Shoulders reversals are considered minor and typically lead to what market behavior?

A

They lead to trading ranges rather than an actual reversal of a trend.

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4
Q

A major reversal is defined as a reversal that leads to at least how many bars and legs?

A

It leads to at least 10 bars and two legs.

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5
Q

What is the approximate probability of achieving a swing trade when entering after a major reversal setup?

A

There is about a 40% chance of a swing trade.

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6
Q

What is the probability of having a small loss or a small win after a major reversal setup?

A

There is a 60% chance of a small loss or a small win.

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7
Q

In a bear trend, what is the first reversal up that demonstrates bull strength called in an H&S pattern?

A

It is called the left shoulder.

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8
Q

In a bear trend, after the left shoulder forms and the trend resumes down, what is the second reversal up called?

A

It is referred to as the head.

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9
Q

After the head forms and the bear trend tries to resume again, what is the third reversal up called?

A

It is described as the right shoulder.

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10
Q

A Head and Shoulders bottom pattern can be described as a lower low major trend reversal followed by what?

A

It is followed by a higher low major trend reversal.

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11
Q

The fewer bars that are in a reversal pattern, the more likely the reversal will be _____.

A

minor

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12
Q

A minor reversal in a bear trend is likely to lead to either a bear flag or a _____.

A

trading range

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13
Q

What is the characteristic trade-off of taking the earliest entry on a swing trade setup?

A

It has low probability but also lower risk and an excellent risk-reward ratio.

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14
Q

What is the characteristic trade-off of waiting for a higher probability trade entry?

A

Your stop will be further away, the risk-reward ratio will be worse, and less profit remains.

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15
Q

If you take 100 low-probability early entries versus 100 high-probability later entries, how will the total profit likely compare?

A

The total profit will be about the same due to the math of risk-reward.

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16
Q

Every Head and Shoulders pattern is considered to be what type of market structure?

A

A trading range.

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17
Q

Every Head and Shoulders bottom is what specific type of major trend reversal?

A

It is a higher low major trend reversal.

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18
Q

Why are many higher low major trend reversals not also Head and Shoulders bottoms?

A

Because many higher low major trend reversals do not have a left shoulder.

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19
Q

When traders anticipate a Head and Shoulders bottom, what is the low-probability bet they might take?

A

They might buy the reversal up from the head.

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20
Q

Traders looking for Head and Shoulders bottoms typically look to buy the reversal up from which part of the pattern?

A

They look to buy the reversal up from the right shoulder.

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21
Q

Every Head and Shoulders top is what specific type of major trend reversal?

A

It is a lower high major trend reversal.

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22
Q

When you have a successful major trend reversal, the swing in the new direction technically begins at what point in the pattern?

A

The swing begins at the head of the pattern.

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23
Q

On a chart, if a Head and Shoulders pattern is still forming within a larger channel, the reversal is likely to be what?

A

It is probably going to be minor.

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24
Q

For a chance of a major reversal from a bear trend to a bull trend, what evidence do bulls usually need to see first?

A

They usually need to see a strong breakout, preferably above the bear trend line.

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25
In a bull trend, any reversal pattern is likely to be minor until what occurs?
It's likely minor until there is a break below the bottom of the bull channel.
26
After a strong break below a bull trend line, bears will look to sell what kind of price action?
Bears will look to sell a rally that forms a lower high.
27
The rally after the sell-off from the head is seen by bears as what?
They see it as a pullback from the breakout below the bull trend line.
28
The more reasons there are to sell (e.g., wedge top, failed breakout, double top), the higher the probability of what outcome?
It's a higher probability that you'll get a swing down.
29
Even when successful, most reversal patterns, including Head and Shoulders tops, usually become what?
They usually become big trading ranges instead of opposite trends.
30
Because markets resist change, what usually happens to breakout attempts in a trading range?
Breakout attempts usually fail.
31
Because markets resist change, what usually happens to reversal attempts in a trend?
Reversal attempts usually fail.
32
A Head and Shoulders top can also be classified as what type of geometric pattern?
It can also be classified as a triangle, as it has three reversals down.
33
A bear trend often begins before what has concluded?
A bear trend often begins before a bull trend ends.
34
What is the traditional way to trade a Head and Shoulders top, which is considered a low-probability bet?
To enter on a stop below the neckline.
35
Why is selling a breakout below the neckline of a Head and Shoulders top a low probability trade?
Because a Head and Shoulders top is a trading range, and most trading range breakouts fail.
36
What makes the low-probability trade of selling below the neckline mathematically viable?
The potential reward is much bigger than the risk.
37
What characteristic of the reversal down from the right shoulder increases the probability of a successful breakout below the neckline?
A very big and very fast reversal down increases the probability.
38
In a trading range, what is a mathematically better strategy than selling a breakout at the bottom?
It is better to sell a reversal down from the top half of the range.
39
What are the three common ways to define or draw the 'neckline' of a Head and Shoulders top?
A line connecting the two pullback lows, the low of the pullback from the head, or the low of the pullback from the left shoulder.
40
What market condition would make the low after the head's rally a 'major' higher low?
If the reversal up from that low was very strong.
41
If the market falls below a major higher low, what has happened to the bull trend?
The bull trend has ended and the market has entered a trading range or a bear trend.
42
In a Head and Shoulders top, what pattern do bulls see that might encourage them to buy?
They see a double bottom bull flag.
43
Theoretically, where is the protective stop for bears who short the right shoulder of a Head and Shoulders top?
The stop is placed above the high of the right shoulder.
44
An H&S top that fails and makes a new higher high could be forming what other pattern?
It could be forming an expanding triangle top.
45
Once a pullback in a bull trend grows to ____ or more bars, it is classified as a trading range.
20
46
In a trading range, the probability of trend resumption versus trend reversal is approximately what?
It is very close to 50/50 for each.
47
In a trading range, what does 'big up, big down' signify?
It signifies big confusion, which usually means the market will continue sideways.
48
A pattern with three pushes down that does not have a classic wedge shape is functionally the same as a _____.
wedge bull flag
49
When a market tries to do something three times and fails, what do traders expect it to do next?
Traders expect it to do the opposite.
50
After a failed breakout below a trading range, what tells traders that many other traders are buying?
A very big bull bar forming as the market reverses up.
51
When a trader's logical stop is hit, what is the probability that a swing will occur in the direction of the breakout?
There is a 50% chance of a swing in the breakout direction.
52
When a trader's logical stop is hit, what is the probability that the market will reverse against the breakout?
There is a 50% chance the market will reverse.
53
For a bear trend to be valid, what must the market continue to form?
It must form a series of lower lows and lower highs.
54
A bear's premise is no longer valid if the market gets above what key price level?
The market gets above a major lower high.
55
When a strong breakout occurs, the probability of a measured move can increase from 50% to what?
It can increase to about 60%.
56
To have more than a 50% chance of a successful breakout, what is needed besides a single strong breakout bar?
A follow-through bar in the same direction is needed.
57
When a strong breakout occurs, why do traders on the wrong side often buy on the first pullback?
They buy back their positions to exit with a smaller loss.
58
While bears see a Head and Shoulders top, bulls see a trading range that they hope is a _____.
bull flag
59
A Head and Shoulders bottom can be considered a type of triangle because it has three pushes _____.
up
60
In a very tight bear channel, the first reversal up is probably minor and will lead to a bare flag or a _____.
trading range
61
A bull's premise of a bull trend is wrong if the market falls below what?
It is wrong if the market falls below a significant higher low.