48a Flashcards

(70 cards)

1
Q

According to Al Brooks, what are the three distinct parts of a typical trading day?

A

The opening (first 1-2 hours), the midday (middle 2-3 hours), and the close (last 1-2 hours).

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2
Q

Which two periods of the trading day are generally considered the easiest times to make money and best for swing trades?

A

The first one to two hours (the open) and the last one to two hours (the close).

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3
Q

The midday portion of the trading day often exhibits what type of market behavior?

A

It tends to be a sideways trading range, causing many traders to be more cautious.

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4
Q

What is Al Brooks’s view on the importance of trading volume in modern markets?

A

He believes it is not particularly important and does not use it to decide whether a trade is suitable, focusing instead on price action and trend.

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5
Q

What are the only three things a market can do in terms of price action?

A

It can break out and form a trend (bull or bear), form a channel, or enter a trading range.

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6
Q

What percentage of trading days do NOT exhibit a relentless, unchanging trend in one direction?

A

Approximately 90% of trading days.

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7
Q

When the market transitions from a breakout to a channel, or a channel to a trading range, what must a trader do?

A

Traders must change their trading style to adapt to the new market behavior and maximize profit potential.

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8
Q

A day that consists of only one type of price action is most commonly a _____ day.

A

trading range

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9
Q

What is the probability that any strong rally or sell-off at the open will fail and reverse?

A

There is a 50% probability that it will fail and lead to a major reversal.

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10
Q

When a small initial sell-off at the open reverses, what is the likely outcome for the rest of the day?

A

The day often becomes a very large bull trend day.

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11
Q

When a very large initial sell-off (e.g., 50-100% of the Average Daily Range) reverses, what is the likely outcome?

A

The reversal typically leads to a trading range for the rest of the day, not a strong bull trend.

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12
Q

What is the statistical probability that the high or low for the day has been established by the close of the 7th 5-minute bar?

A

There is a 50% probability.

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13
Q

By the close of the 18th 5-minute bar (90 minutes into the day), what is the probability that the high or the low for the day has been set?

A

There is a 90% probability.

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14
Q

A profitable swing trade in the E-mini S&P 500 is typically defined as a profit of at least how many points?

A

Four points or more.

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15
Q

There is a 90% chance of a profitable swing trade beginning within the first _____ of the trading day.

A

two hours

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16
Q

What is the most important rule for a trader, especially when trading the open?

A

A trader must be prepared for anything.

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17
Q

For beginner traders, what type of order is recommended for entering trades?

A

Stop orders are recommended over limit orders or market orders.

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18
Q

On a daily chart, the small wick at the bottom of a strong bull trend bar is created by what intraday action 90% of the time?

A

It is created by an early sell-off at the open that then reverses to the upside.

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19
Q

On a daily chart, the small wick at the top of a strong bear trend bar is created by what intraday action 90% of the time?

A

It is created by an early rally at the open that then reverses to the downside.

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20
Q

What are the three most common patterns traders often see at the open?

A
  1. A trend from the open. 2. A breakout mode pattern. 3. An opening reversal.
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21
Q

Term: Breakout Mode Pattern (Opening)

A

An early trading range where the market makes a new high and reverses down, and a new low and reverses up, setting up a breakout trade above the high or below the low.

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22
Q

What are the key characteristics of a tight trading range, where limit order entries are more common?

A

Prominent tails on bars, frequent reversals every few bars, and significant bar overlap.

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23
Q

What are the key characteristics of a broad trading range, where both stop and limit order entries can be used?

A

Wide swings with micro-channels, large bar bodies, and less overlap between bars.

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24
Q

How does looking at the daily chart provide context for the current trading day?

A

The pattern of the preceding days (e.g., trend days, range days) indicates the probable behavior for the current day.

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25
If the daily chart shows many consecutive trend days in one direction, what should a trader anticipate?
The trader should anticipate an early test in the opposite direction (a pullback or reversal) to see if the trend is still strong.
26
If the daily chart is in a tight trading range with many doji candles, what is the likely price action for the current day?
The day is likely to be another trading range day, with reversals from any strong moves back toward the open price.
27
What is the statistical likelihood of a follow-through trend after a strong trend day (buy or sell climax) on the previous day?
There is a 50% chance of follow-through buying/selling within the first two hours.
28
After a strong trend day, there's a 75% chance the market will trade _____ for at least two hours, starting before the end of the second hour.
sideways to in the opposite direction
29
What is the probability that a strong trend day will be followed by a trend day in the opposite direction?
Only a 25% chance.
30
A large gap up or down on the open is functionally a _____.
breakout
31
If the market has a large gap up at the open and then forms two or three strong, consecutive bull bars, what is the likely outcome?
The day is unlikely to become a bear trend day; it will likely be either a bull trend day or a trading range day.
32
If the market has a large gap down at the open and then forms two or three strong, consecutive bear bars, what is the likely outcome?
The day is unlikely to become a bull trend day; it will likely be either a bear trend day or a trading range day.
33
What is a common pattern that forms after a large gap up and a subsequent sell-off?
The market often forms a double bottom or a wedge bull flag near the moving average before attempting to rally again.
34
What is a common pattern that forms after a large gap down and a subsequent rally?
The market often forms a double top or a wedge bear flag near the moving average before attempting to sell off again.
35
How do unfilled gaps from the previous day typically affect price action?
Unfilled gaps act as magnets, and the market will often attempt to close them.
36
What is the defining characteristic of the 'Breakout Mode' pattern?
After the first bar, the market makes a new high then reverses down, and also makes a new low then reverses up.
37
For a 'Breakout Mode' pattern to be reliable, it should ideally contain at least how many bars?
It should contain at least ten bars.
38
For a 'Breakout Mode' pattern, the height of the opening range should ideally be what size relative to the average daily range?
It should be 50% of the average daily range or smaller.
39
Once the market breaks out above the high or below the low of the 18-bar opening range, what is the probability it will reverse and break the other side of the range?
There is only a 10% chance it will reverse and break the opposite side of the range.
40
When trading a breakout of the 18-bar range, traders anticipate a move of approximately what size?
A measured move, roughly equal to the height of the 18-bar range itself.
41
If the market is approaching the 18-bar mark near the day's high, what trade will some traders look for?
They will look to sell a reversal down, betting against a breakout of the 18-bar range high.
42
What is a common and high-probability setup when the market attempts to reverse a breakout above the previous day's high?
A second entry short, where the first attempt to reverse fails, and traders sell the second reversal signal.
43
Why is a second entry signal often more reliable than a first entry signal for reversals?
The failure of the first signal traps counter-trend traders and confirms the strength of the original trend participants.
44
If yesterday was a very small, quiet trading range day (an 'inside day'), what is more likely to happen today?
There is a greater chance of an 'outside day,' where the market trades both above yesterday's high and below yesterday's low.
45
A reversal from a failed breakout below yesterday's low often forms what classic chart pattern before resuming its upward move?
A cup and handle pattern, where the reversal is the cup and the subsequent pullback is the handle.
46
If a reversal attempt from a breakout above yesterday's high fails and turns into a bull flag, what should traders do?
They should exit any short positions and look to buy, as the bull trend is likely resuming.
47
What percentage of the time will even a very strong opening trend experience at least a minor reversal (a pullback lasting 5-10 bars)?
80% of the time.
48
A major reversal at the open implies a change from a _____ to a _____.
trend in one direction; trend in the opposite direction
49
A minor reversal at the open often forms a _____ or a _____ before the original trend resumes.
trading range; flag pattern (bull or bear)
50
If the market gaps far below the moving average, 80% of days will form one of what four patterns?
A double top bear flag, a wedge bear flag, a double bottom reversal, or a wedge bottom reversal.
51
The first profitable swing trade of the day often comes from betting that the first strong move from the open will _____.
reverse
52
After a strong breakout, what is a common setup for a second entry in the direction of the trend?
A pullback that forms a bull or bear flag, allowing traders who missed the initial breakout to enter.
53
In a trading range, traders using limit orders often buy below the low of prior bars and sell above the high of prior bars, betting that all _____ will fail.
breakout attempts
54
What does a series of bars with poor follow-through after a strong move (e.g., a big bull bar followed by dojis or bear bars) indicate?
It indicates that the move is likely a leg within a trading range, not the start of a new trend.
55
What does Al Brooks mean when he says a day had 'two or more legs'?
The market moved in one direction for a period, had a significant pullback, and then moved in the same direction again.
56
When a strong trend day finally enters a trading range for several hours, what are the two possibilities traders anticipate near the end of the day?
A trend resumption in the original direction or a major trend reversal in the opposite direction.
57
What is a 'High 2' or 'Low 2' buy/sell setup?
It is a second attempt by the market to move up (High 2) or down (Low 2) after a pullback, often forming a flag pattern.
58
A failed breakout of a wedge bottom, followed by a strong bull bar, is a high-probability setup for what?
A reversal to the upside, potentially establishing the low of the day.
59
How can the 60-minute 20-bar exponential moving average be used on a 5-minute chart?
It can act as a significant support or resistance level for intraday reversals.
60
A breakout that occurs late in the day after many hours of sideways movement has a higher probability of _____.
failing
61
What does the term 'running the stops' refer to in the context of a breakout?
The market pushing just beyond a key high or low to trigger the protective stop orders of traders on the wrong side.
62
A trend that begins with a gap up is considered a _____.
breakout
63
After a large gap down, even if the day becomes a bull trend day, where is the first logical target for the rally?
The bottom of the gap (yesterday's low or close).
64
A 'parabolic wedge' is a type of climax that signals what?
It signals that a trend is exhausted and is likely to lead to a significant pullback or reversal.
65
In a strong trend, traders often look to enter on pullbacks. What is a common pullback depth?
A pullback to the 20-bar exponential moving average.
66
Term: Trend From The Open
A day type where the market begins trending in one direction from the very first bar and experiences only minor pullbacks.
67
When a trader 'fades' a move, what are they doing?
They are trading in the opposite direction of the most recent strong move, betting on a reversal.
68
What is the key difference between a channel and a breakout?
A breakout is a very strong, steep move with little to no pullback, while a channel is a weaker trend with significant pullbacks and two-sided trading.
69
If you see a strong sell-off at the open and then a strong bull reversal bar closing near its high, what should a trader in a short position do?
They should exit their short position and consider going long.
70
A 'micro double top' is a reversal pattern that occurs over how many bars?
It is a small reversal pattern that forms over just a few bars.