43 Flashcards

(60 cards)

1
Q

What is the primary rule for trading in a market identified as a tight bull channel?

A

Traders should only look for opportunities to buy.

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2
Q

A tight bull channel on a 5-minute chart often appears as a strong _____ on a higher timeframe chart like a 15-minute or 60-minute chart.

A

breakout

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3
Q

How long do pullbacks typically last in a tight bull channel?

A

They are very brief, usually lasting only one to three bars.

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4
Q

In a tight bull channel, why is selling (shorting) considered a low-probability strategy?

A

The pullbacks are too small and shallow for sellers to consistently make a profit, especially with stop-loss orders.

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5
Q

What common psychological mistake do beginner traders make in a tight bull channel?

A

They focus on the small risk of selling reversals and ignore the extremely low probability of success.

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6
Q

What are the three essential variables of the ‘Trader’s Equation’?

A

Risk, reward, and probability.

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7
Q

What is a key visual indicator of strength in a tight bull channel related to pullbacks and prior highs?

A

The presence of gaps, where the low of a pullback stays above the high of the prior breakout point.

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8
Q

If you are uncertain whether a bull channel is tight or broad, how should you treat it for trading purposes?

A

You should treat it as a tight channel and focus only on buying.

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9
Q

When a tight bull channel exists, any reversal attempt is most likely to fail and become a _____.

A

bull flag

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10
Q

Instead of reversing directly into a bear trend, what market structure does a tight bull channel almost always transition into first?

A

A trading range.

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11
Q

In a strong trend, what does the emotional urge to wait for a deeper pullback before buying often signify?

A

It signifies that the trend is very strong and you should find a way to buy, even if it feels uncomfortably high.

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12
Q

What is a ‘micro channel’ within a larger trend?

A

A sequence of bars where each bar’s low is at or above the low of the prior bar, indicating significant strength.

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13
Q

Where should a trader place their initial stop-loss when buying a breakout that initiates a tight bull channel?

A

Below the bottom of the most recent strong breakout or below the start of the bull trend.

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14
Q

As a tight bull channel progresses and makes new highs, where should a trailing stop-loss be moved to?

A

Below the most recent major higher low.

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15
Q

What is one effective way to enter a long position during a pullback in a tight bull channel?

A

Buy above the high of a bull bar that forms after a brief pullback (a high 1 or high 2 buy).

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16
Q

In a bull trend, a small, tight bear channel lasting only a few bars is typically a _____ and a buying opportunity.

A

bull flag

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17
Q

If a bull flag (a pullback in a bear channel) extends for 10-20 bars or more, what does this increase the probability of?

A

A potential trend reversal if there is a strong bear breakout below the channel.

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18
Q

What is a buying climax, and what might it signal in a mature bull trend?

A

It is often the largest bull trend bar in the last 20 or more bars, signaling potential exhaustion and the end of the trend.

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19
Q

After a buying climax, what is the most probable outcome for the market?

A

The market will likely test the low of the buying climax bar and transition into a trading range.

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20
Q

What does it mean if pullbacks start to create a ‘stepping stone’ pattern, where they overlap with prior breakout highs?

A

It’s a sign of weakening trend momentum, suggesting the channel may be transitioning to a broader channel or a trading range.

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21
Q

For bulls who are scaling into a position, where is a logical area to add to their long trade during a pullback?

A

At a 33% to 50% retracement of the prior bull leg.

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22
Q

For traders adding to a position, why is it important that the second entry is significantly lower than the first?

A

To allow the trader to exit the first position at breakeven and still make a profit on the second position if the market bounces.

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23
Q

What is the minimum price move a trader should aim for when taking profit on a swing trade?

A

A reward equal to at least one time their actual risk.

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24
Q

What happens to the probability of success when a trader scales into a losing trade?

A

The probability of making a profit increases, but at the cost of significantly increased risk.

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25
If a trader consistently observes that sellers (bears) are unable to make money on reversal attempts, what two conclusions should they draw?
First, they should not sell, and second, they can buy at any time with a high probability of success.
26
A failed breakout above a prior high, followed by a strong bear reversal bar, can be considered a _____, which is a sell signal.
lower high major trend reversal
27
When a trend has persisted for 20 or more bars, traders should start looking for signs that the channel may evolve into a _____.
trading range
28
According to the source, what percentage of bull channels will eventually have a bear breakout below the trend line?
Approximately 75%.
29
What is one sign of a weakening trend regarding the follow-through after new highs are made?
Disappointing follow-through, such as small bars, doji candles, or immediate bear reversal bars.
30
What is a 'wedge top' pattern in a bull trend?
A pattern with three pushes up, often with each push being weaker than the last, signaling a potential reversal.
31
When a wedge top forms in a very tight channel, is a major reversal the most likely outcome?
No, the reversal is likely to be minor and form a bull flag, with the trend resuming upwards.
32
How can a trader use the moving average to find a buying opportunity in a tight bull channel?
By placing a limit order to buy at or just above the moving average during a pullback.
33
Why is buying the close of a strong bull bar a valid entry strategy in a tight channel?
It assumes the momentum is strong and the market will have at least a small second leg up.
34
Fading a reversal attempt by buying below a bear signal bar is a strategy based on the expectation that the reversal will _____.
fail
35
What is the primary characteristic that distinguishes a broad bull channel from a tight one?
In a broad bull channel, the pullbacks are deep enough for sellers to make a profit, making two-sided trading possible.
36
After a strong breakout, a surprising large bear bar is more likely to be a test of the _____ than the start of a bear trend.
breakout point
37
What is the typical structure of a major trend reversal from a bull trend?
The bull trend first evolves into a trading range, then tests the prior high and fails, leading to a break below the range.
38
When a tight channel transitions to a trading range, traders should switch their mindset from 'trend-following' to buying _____ and selling _____.
low, high
39
A series of three consecutive, strong bear bars closing near their lows after a prolonged bull trend is a strong signal of a ____.
bear breakout
40
After a strong bear breakout, any bounce or rally is likely a _____, offering an opportunity to sell.
bear flag
41
Why might a trader choose a wider stop-loss when scalping?
A wider stop allows for a higher probability of winning and provides room to scale into the position if it moves against them initially.
42
In a strong bull trend, the failure of a good-looking sell signal (like a second entry short) is often a _____ signal.
buy
43
What is a measured move target?
A profit target calculated by projecting the height of a prior leg or a trading range upwards from a breakout point.
44
If a trader misses the initial breakout, what is a patient way to enter the trend?
Wait for the first pullback and enter on a sign of the trend resuming.
45
Why is it generally better to buy pullbacks rather than breakouts in a channel phase?
Because bulls often take profits at new highs in a channel, causing breakouts to be shallow and pull back quickly.
46
A strong breakout followed by a bar with a large upper tail (wick) indicates what?
It indicates that sellers came in at the top, and the breakout is weaker than it first appeared.
47
What is the risk of buying a strong bull close late in a trend (after 20+ bars)?
The risk of it being an exhaustion move or buying climax is much higher.
48
If you buy a position and the market immediately goes sideways for many bars, what should you consider doing?
Consider exiting near your entry price (breakeven) because your premise of a strong trend is now questionable.
49
The first attempt to reverse a strong trend has a high probability of ____.
failing
50
In a tight bull channel, even if you buy and the market immediately reverses down, what is likely to happen?
The market will probably bounce back to your entry price, allowing you to exit without a loss.
51
Term: High 2 Buy Setup
Definition: A buy setup that occurs after two attempts by the market to move down during a pullback. The entry is above the signal bar of the second leg up.
52
A failed major trend reversal attempt, such as a double top that doesn't lead to a bear trend, often results in what?
A resumption of the original bull trend, often with acceleration.
53
If a trader using limit orders to sell at prior highs has to scale in more than 3-4 times, what does it likely mean?
Their premise that the market is in a trading range is wrong, and they are caught in a strong trend.
54
A small pullback bull trend is characterized by pullbacks so minor that they do not even trade below the _____ of the prior bar.
low
55
When a tight bull channel's trend line is broken, what often happens to the angle of the subsequent trend line?
The new trend line becomes flatter (less steep) as the channel broadens.
56
What is a 'disaster stop'?
A very wide stop-loss that a trader never intends to let get hit, planning instead to exit earlier if evidence shows their premise is wrong.
57
What is the primary danger of reversing a position (e.g., exiting a short and immediately going long)?
It can be emotionally difficult to switch bias, and many traders lack the objectivity to do it well.
58
After a strong bear breakout, traders can look to sell below the low of _____ bars that form during a bounce.
bull
59
In a tight bull channel, the best outcome sellers can hope for from a reversal is often just a _____ or a bull flag.
trading range
60
The absence of large, consecutive bull bars and the presence of many small, overlapping bars are signs of a _____, not a strong breakout.
channel